By Carlo Platella
The absence of Red Bull is noticeable at Albert Park, but this does not detract from Ferrari's best weekend since the beginning of the year. The Cavallino confirms the enormous progress made in the last six months and which continue as the team becomes more and more familiar with the new car. In Japan Verstappen is called to clarify the hierarchies, aboard an RB20 which remains the car to beat, but whose superiority risks being called into question during the year.
The race
In Melbourne the decisive moment came in the very first laps of the race, when on Verstappen's Red Bull the right rear brake remained clamped to the disc, with the effect of applying the “handbrake” to the RB20. The world champion, having difficulty driving, first made a mistake and was overtaken by Carlos Sainz, before retiring a few corners further on. For the Dutch it is about a zero in the rankings that weighsbecause if it is realistic that the number one can return to the front in Japan, it is no longer certain that he can remain there for the whole year.
At that point Sainz has the opportunity to manage the race, while behind him Leclerc pays for his mistakes in qualifying, finding himself in the McLarens' traffic. To overtake Lando Norris, the Ferrari wall calls the Monegasque to the pits early, crucial decision also to defend against Piastri's undercut. The Cavallino manages to overtake in the pits, but at that point Leclerc finds himself with tires 7 laps older than Sainz, without any possibility of worrying him. The Monegasque also suffers from a 5-lap disadvantage in tire life compared to Norris, a handicap that drags on throughout the second and third stages of the race, outlining a defensive race.
With the same rubber, McLaren pays half a second per lap from Sainz's Ferrari in the first stint, but gains competitiveness as the car runs out of fuel. Thanks to the fresher tyres, Norris put pressure on Leclerc at the end, but was unable to overtake and came close to setting the fastest lap. Up front, Sainz continues without a hitch until the checkered flag, marking his return to the track two weeks after the operation with a victory and positioning himself as one of the most attractive drivers on the market.
The missed challenge
Australia's is the best Ferrari since the beginning of the season and probably since 2022, when Leclerc's illusory victory earned the F1-75 the nickname “Beast”. For fans, it is too early to place the same world championship hopes in the SF-24 as they had at the time, although the 2024 and 2022 Ferraris express similar qualities, both in terms of car and on-track strategies. The Rossa returns to having high-speed corners one of the greatest advantagesalso aiming for the second consecutive race on a higher load level than Red Bull, as often happened in 2022.
At the end of the race the question remains whether this Ferrari and this Sainz could have compete on equal terms with Verstappen. The only reference with Red Bull is in the comparison between the final stints of Perez and Leclerc on the same tyre, when in free air the Monegasque travels half a second faster per lap. However, at that point the Mexican is encouraging, without also considering how Verstappen always manages to get something more out of the RB20.
In the event of a direct challenge, the Cavallino would certainly have had a better chance if it had started from the front, without missing out on a pole position which seemed within reach. The incisiveness in qualifying, a quality long appreciated in 2023, is now instead the area where Ferrari can improve the most, not only at the vehicle level, but also at the execution level. In addition to the merits of Verstappen, what made the difference in the first three qualifying sessions was the excellent timing of the Red Bull wall, which always sent the cars onto the track free from traffic, preparing the tires as best as possible and also taking advantage of the slipstream in a couple of of opportunities.
Eyes on the championship
The fans' second question is whether Ferrari has the potential to challenge the world champions. The one in Melbourne actually looks like a misstep by Red Bull in preparation for the weekend, on a track that he had already struggled to interpret in 2022. Furthermore, at Albert Park the limiting factor in the race is not the thermal degradation of the rubber, but graining, surface cracking, a particular wear mechanism in which Ferrari had already shown itself to be skilled in the Las Vegas Grand Prix last November.
Net of all the anomalies capable of explaining the temporary reversal of roles between Ferrari and Red Bull, it must however be kept in mind that the championship lives a phase of rapid evolution of the values in the field. The teams know and use their cars better and better, waiting for development to officially take off. The absence of particular updates in the first month of the season suggests that important packages are in the pipeline in the factories, which will dictate the evolution of the hierarchies between now and the end of the year.
This is also why the points lost at Red Bull weigh heavily, as they have the obligation to capitalize as much as possible on their current superiority. Although growing, however, Ferrari is missing something before talking about reopening the drivers' championship, while that of manufacturers appears to be an objective already within reach. If steps forward are still needed to consistently worry Verstappen, nibbling away at Perez's points is realistic, especially if the Mexican still struggles to emerge from the center of the group.
McLaren in great shape
Staying on the topic of chasers, he shows off in Melbourne an excellent McLaren, with Norris just 6 seconds behind Sainz before the final stoppage. Just like Jeddah, Albert Park represents a friendly track for the MCL38, but Suzuka will be even more so, dotted with high-speed corners. Updates are also expected in Woking, which Andrea Stella anticipates will change the appearance of the car, suggesting changes to the bodywork and bottom.
Still too far away for the moment Aston Martin and Mercedes, who, realizing that they cannot compete on an equal footing with their rivals, play the card of alternative strategies. Alonso opts to start on hard tires instead of medium, while Russell extends the central part of the race to attack in the final with fresh tyres. The two meet in the final laps, in a challenge that sees the Brit hit the wall. It becomes double zero at Mercedes, after the technical retirement of Lewis Hamilton, a conclusion in line with the suffering of the weekend. The Silver Arrows pay for an operating window that is too narrow and an enigmatic car to understand, outlining a picture very similar to the one Ferrari found itself in in 2023.
Great satisfaction for Yuki Tsunoda, who gives the first world championship points to the Racing Bulls, currently the best car in the second half of the grid. Haas scores points for the second weekend in a row, far from being the last force in the field as team principal Komatsu predicted. However, the progress on race pace will have to be evaluated on more severe tracks due to tire degradation, a test that also awaits Ferrari itself.
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