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There is increasing scientific evidence of the climatic conditions that led to the collapse of the Mayan civilization 1,200 years ago, just when they were at the peak of their development. The large population growth, which required indiscriminate use of natural resources, led to severe periods of drought and soil degradation and, therefore, food insecurity. The government system could not be sustained. Populations migrated. We only have the archaeological ruins left to imagine what the splendor of their culture was like; and also a history lesson to learn.
A group of scientists from around the world has been gathering evidence for more than 30 years that human activities (such as transportation, energy, industry and land use) are the direct causes of climate change and that we have a series of planetary boundaries that, if crossed, can be potentially catastrophic and irreversible.
Personally, I spent several years participating in the United Nations Conferences on Climate Change (the COPs as they are called in short) and I had the responsibility of being a negotiator for my country, Colombia, when the Paris Agreement was adopted. There I was part of the design of the evaluation system for their goals, also known as World Balance. And this year, I was in Dubai witnessing the first of these evaluations at COP28.
In a sense, the nations of the world failed the Paris Agreement exam, since the commitments and actions that have been carried out to date are not enough to avoid these catastrophic climate changes. You don't have to look very far in any newspaper in the world to find news of devastating storms and hurricanes, periods of rain or drought never seen before, even this year has already been classified as the hottest on record.
Unlike the Mayans, who could not understand the signs of change or act on them, our modern society has had to go through 28 of these Conferences to finally, in a historical event, call things by their name, identify and accept responsibilities and seek to direct the changes where they should be. That is, transform our energy and transportation systems; stop and reverse deforestation; and strengthen resilience to the impacts of climate change of the water, agriculture, food systems, health, ecosystems, infrastructure and cultural heritage sectors.
Let's break down the idea of transforming our energy and transportation systems, and why this is considered a historic victory. Representatives of the oil industry have spent decades, with resounding success, diverting public attention from their direct blame for climate change.
This COP took place in the heart of Middle East oil production, with a conference president who is also the CEO of the 12th largest oil producing company in the world, and who was subject to multiple media controversies. And yet, despite the oil lobby led by Saudi Arabia, despite being in that region of the world full of obstructionist and denialist negotiators, despite the interests of other great economic powers that always seek the lowest common denominator in climate action such as the United States. United States or China, despite the president of the COP, The sign is unmistakable: All countries in the world committed to leaving fossil fuels behind and replacing them by tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency; which is tied to deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions of 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035, seeking to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. These are the foundations of an unstoppable transition, away from fossil fuels.
It was a relentless battle in which a progressive alliance led by the island countries, the European Union and some Latin American countries, led by Colombia, defended a secure future for humanity with frankly heroic efforts.
For our Latin America, as well as for other regions of the world, fulfilling the commitments made at COP28 will mean an enormous transformational challenge. One that will require an accompanying flow of financing and investments of trillions of dollars annually, particularly from rich countries to the developing world, attesting to their own financial obligations. One that must be translated into national action plans and renewed commitments to the United Nations. One for which our region has a slight comparative advantage, having more than 60% of our energy systems based on renewable energy, but which must still increase until it reaches 100%. One that must also occur by listening to and integrating the voices of the communities, the voices of indigenous peoples, the voices of disadvantaged sectors that could benefit from greater energy democracy. At the end of the day, this transition is an opportunity, like few others, to address a global problem with justice and equity.
Goodbye fossil fuels, hello renewables!
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