BRASÍLIA (Reuters) – The first Genial/Quaest poll for president without the presence of former judge Sergio Moro among the candidates showed former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the lead, with 45% of voting intentions, and an increase of 5 percentage points for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who reached 31% of the electorate’s preference.
The other candidates in this scenario added up to 12% of the voting intentions, with Ciro Gomes (PDT) concentrating 6%, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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The survey also made a scenario with Moro, who last week migrated from Podemos to União Brasil and said that “at that moment” he gave up the presidential pre-candidacy. In this case, Bolsonaro appears with 29%, compared to 26% last month, while Lula has 44%, against 46% previously. Moro would have 6%, compared to 7% in March, and Ciro went from 7% to 5%.
In the second round simulations, Lula wins in all the scenarios presented. Against Bolsonaro, the former president would have an advantage of 55% to 34%, both oscillating upwards within the margin of error. In the last poll, in March, Lula had 54% and Bolsonaro, 32%.
Genial/Quaest heard two thousand people, in person, between March 30 and April 3, in 127 municipalities.
The survey also showed that the positive assessment of the Bolsonaro government fluctuated positively. Today, 47% of respondents have a negative view of the government, compared to 49% in February. The positive evaluation went from 24% to 26%.
The greatest impact occurred among people who receive the Auxílio Brasil program, which replaced the Bolsa Família, and had its value readjusted to 400 reais. In March, 54% of those interviewed had a negative view of the government, and now it’s 46%. In this group, the positive evaluation went from 19% to 24%.
The survey also shows that Bolsonaro regained part of the approval among those who declared to have voted for him in the second round of the 2018 election. In March, 49% approved of the government. Now it’s 52%.
The government also started to be better evaluated in the North regions, where the positive evaluation went from 29% to 35%, and in the South, from 32% to 37%. In the others, the evaluation fluctuated within the margin of error.
The negative evaluation also dropped among women, although 50% still consider the government to be bad, compared to 25% of regular evaluation and 23% positive. In March, the negative evaluation among women was 53%. Among men, 43% evaluate the government negatively, while 29% consider it positive and 25% see it as regular.
(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu)
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