DThe three-day supply disruption by Nord Stream 1 announced by Gazprom at the end of the month falls into the category of political maintenance. On Putin’s second front, the battle for European public opinion, Germany (along with Italy) is a particularly weak link and a worthwhile target.
Dependence on Russian gas is still high, and in few countries are Russian narratives so entrenched, right up to the highest political leadership. The example of Kubicki has only just shown again that the Kremlin can still rely on there always being a top German politician to take care of Russian business.
Germany is far from the only Western country suffering from rising energy prices. However, the high tax burden means that citizens in this country have less to cope with, and not only at the lower end of the income scale.
The needs of the middle class
The fact that the mood is at a “very sensitive point”, as the Federal Minister of Labor describes it, should also apply to the working middle class. Even before the gas crisis, their needs were often only marginally mentioned in the German discourse. In the coalition, this is a problem for the FDP in particular, because as the guardian of budgetary discipline, it will not be able to collect too many points from the insecure middle class at the moment.
Nevertheless, Putin should not hope that his calculations will work out. Germany tends to engage in alarmist debates, but the country is (financially) strong enough to cushion the strain of the Ukraine war. The Russian gas can be replaced, this is about one, maybe two difficult winters.
For Russia, on the other hand, things are not looking good in the medium term. After losing Western customers, Putin has finally ruined the country’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier. What his empire will live on in the future is unclear.
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