Fronts where the war in the Middle East has expanded beyond Israel-Hamas

There are growing signs that the conflict between Israel and Hamas is spreading across the Middle East.

The latest incident occurred overnight Saturday into Sunday when three American soldiers were killed and at least 40 wounded in a drone strike in Jordan, near the border with Syria.

A group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for the attack.

“There have been frequent drone attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US bases, but this is the most serious,” says BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner.

The White House claims that Iran is behind this and other operations, an accusation that the Tehran regime denies.

The expansion of the conflict is perceived as a setback to the US strategy of recent months, whose objective was precisely to prevent the escalation of the conflict from Gaza to neighboring countries.

“The big point here is that President Biden's deterrence strategy has failed,” Fawaz Gerges, professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), tells the BBC.

“There is now a real danger that the war in Gaza will turn into a broader regional conflict,” he adds.

An expanding conflict

One of the elements that make the situation more complex is that there is a multiplicity of active organizations spread across different countries in the region.

For example, the weekend attack that took the lives of three American soldiers was carried out by a network of organizations, rather than a single actor.

“The group calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq is part of a broad network of Iranian-backed militias that have been armed, financed and trained by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps,” explains Frank Gardner.

“Operating in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, they oppose both the Israeli and US military presence in the region,” he adds.

Shortly after the Hamas attack on Israeli territory on October 7 and Israel's subsequent military response against the Gaza Strip, the US moved warships to the Mediterranean Sea to warn all parties involved not to escalate the conflict. .

However, the conflict has gone much further.

“The reality is that there is a fire burning on several fronts,” says Lyse Doucet, BBC chief international correspondent.

We tell you what they are.

1. Lebanon and the role of Hezbollah

The border between Israel and Lebanon has been in a precarious balance for years since the end of the war between the two countries in 2006.

Now, in the midst of the war in Gaza, this border has become one of the most sensitive areas within the framework of the expansion of the conflict.

In recent months, Israeli forces and the radical Islamic group Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite movement supported by Iran, have constantly exchanged attacks.

In this scenario, the United States fears that Israel could attack or invade Lebanon and has urged its ally to avoid such an action.

If that were to happen, the region would reach a much higher level of conflict with unexpected consequences for the West.

2. The Houthis and the tension in the Red Sea

The Red Sea, meanwhile, has become a hotbed of violence after the Houthis, a rebel group that controls much of Yemen and is supported by Iran, launched a series of missile attacks against cargo ships. West.

Since November, Yemeni militia have attacked ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a 32-kilometer-wide channel that separates Yemen, on the Arabian Peninsula, from northeastern Africa.

The insurgents claim to be targeting ships with connections to Israel in retaliation for the war in the Gaza Strip.

In response, the US and UK launched successive rounds of attacks against the Houthis.

One of the latest incidents in the area occurred on January 26, when a tanker cargo ship carrying fuel, owned by the company Trafigura, one of the world's largest energy traders, was hit by a missile off the coast of Aden.

Hundreds of giant container ships are taking an alternative route that involves an extensive and costly detour around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

3. Iraq and US bases

In the case of Iraq, radical groups have launched drones and rockets against US bases, such as the Asad air base in western Iraq, an attack that caused traumatic brain injuries to two US soldiers.

In retaliation, the US launched a series of airstrikes on January 23.

The conflict in that country has been going on for months.

Bases housing US forces in Iraq and northeastern Syria have been repeatedly attacked, prompting the US military response.

These attacks are seen as part of Iran's indirect conflict with the United States.

Around 3,400 members of the international coalition against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, led by the US, are in Iraq and Syria, becoming potential targets of attacks.

4. Syria and its link with Iran

Syria, for its part, is also part of the ramifications that the war in Gaza is having for the rest of the region.

US planes bombed a weapons depot that apparently belonged to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in November.

A few days later, they attacked a training facility and safe house that would have been linked to Iran in eastern Syria.

In December, an Israeli airstrike in a suburb of Damascus, the Syrian capital, killed Iranian General Seyed Razi Mousavi, a former adviser to the paramilitary Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria.

In mid-January, another Israeli strike in the Syrian capital destroyed a building allegedly used by Iranian agents.

These types of attacks continue to be repeated in what is considered another expression of the US and Israel conflict against Iran.

A great challenge for the US

Few analysts expect that the United States will decide to directly attack targets on Iranian soil, because it would raise tensions in the region
to a much higher level and could have high-risk consequences for the parties involved and the rest of the world.

In fact, the last time Iran and the United States clashed directly was in the 1980s, when Washington and Tehran engaged in military offensives in the waters of the Persian Gulf, where Iran's ships and oil platforms were attacked.

That level of escalation seems to be off the chessboard for now, but the truth is that things are getting complicated.

The deaths of the three US service members in Jordan come as the US and its allies try to negotiate a pause in the war between Israel and Hamas and a hostage deal, hoping it will end the war or at least subside. fighting enough to reduce tensions elsewhere.

An outbreak of violence involving the United States and Iran could dash hopes of restoring calm before Ramadan, the Muslim holy period that begins in March.

Against this backdrop, one of the biggest challenges facing Joe Biden's government is, according to analysts, the definition of a strategy that allows it to respond to the constant attacks in a proportionate, dissuasive manner and that, at the same time, does not escalate nor expand the conflict.

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