Conservatives control all aspects of Iranian power, and the religious elite tightly controls who is allowed to run in elections, as moderates were excluded in the last elections in March.
In this report, we monitor 9 prominent figures in Iran who belong to different backgrounds, ranging from religious seminaries to military and political experience.
Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf
Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf holds the position of Chairman of the Islamic Shura Council. He was a commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Tehran police chief, and has a long history in military and political positions. London’s IranWire described him as “the most prepared candidate”.
Luck: Ghalibaf faces criticism due to major corruption files, which makes his chances of obtaining broad support from the neoconservatives difficult. The corruption issues surrounding him may hinder his passage as a strong presidential candidate.
Muhammad Mukhbar
The late Iranian Vice President, Ebrahim Raisi, assumed the duties of president in accordance with Article 131 of the law until a new president was elected.
- He headed the committee implementing the Imam’s order Khomeini It is a government institution specialized in charitable affairs, and he was the CEO and Executive Vice President of Khuzestan Telecommunications Company.
- In 2010, the European Union included it on the sanctions list in connection with the program Iran The missile.
- It was placed on the sanctions list by the US Treasury in January 2021.
- In August 2021, the president chose him Ibrahim Raisi as his first deputy.
Luck: He has an exceptional opportunity to demonstrate his abilities during the constitutional 50 days as interim president of the country.
Saeed Jalili
- A conservative Iranian politician who was Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013. He is known for his hard-line views and served as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. Jalili lost his leg in the Iran-Iraq War, which added to his image as a dedicated warrior for his country. He is known to adopt a hardline ideology in line with the Islamic Revolution in Iran, and is a close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Luck: Despite his popularity among conservative circles, Jalili faces opposition from some Iranian political circles due to his tough positions that may lead to destabilization in the country.
Mohsen Rezaei
- Mohsen Rezaei was a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and held several political positions, including economic assistant to the president. He was held responsible for the failure of Iran’s economic policies, especially the deterioration of the currency. Rezaei is expected to run again as he did in 2021.
Luck: Because he is blamed for economic failure, it is difficult to remarket him as a serious presidential candidate, but he may play a role as a figurehead contender to show the election as pluralistic.
Reda Zakani
- Reza Zakani serves as the mayor of Tehran and played an important role in suppressing the demonstrations. He is known for his tough leadership and ability to deal with security crises, but he lacks experience in state administration and foreign policy.
Luck: Despite his ability to impose order, Zakani lacks the experience needed to run a country and deal with international issues, making him a less attractive option to some political circles.
Ali Larijani
- Ali Larijani was the long-time Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and is from a prominent political family in Iran. He has a long history in government and political positions.
He assumed the presidency of the Islamic Shura Council (Iran’s parliament) from 2008 until 2020.
During his presidency, Larijani played an important role in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy, and had a significant influence on national legislation and policies. He also served as National Security Advisor and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. He played a major role in shaping Iranian internal and external policies and nuclear negotiations.
Luck: Despite his long political history, he may be excluded from running for president, but he will still have a role in appointed positions. His loss in the previous election weakens his chances of running again.
Parvez Fattah
- Parviz Fattah is the president of the Mostazafan Foundation, and he is one of the figures known for his conservative and extremist tendencies. He has a strong background in government administration and charitable foundations.
Luck: Fattah faces challenges in gaining broad support from across the political spectrum given his hard-line leanings, but he has a strong support base among conservatives.
Mehrdad Bazarbash
- Mehrdad Bazarbash holds the position of Minister of Roads and Urban Development. He is considered one of the young figures who will have a promising political future in Iran.
Luck: Bazarbash has good chances to have a prominent role in Iran’s political future thanks to his background in infrastructure development and support from some political circles.
Ali Shamkhani
- Ali Shamkhani is the Secretary General of the Supreme National Security Council and one of the prominent figures who may be a presidential candidate. He has extensive experience in security and political affairs.
Luck: Shamkhani has strong opportunities due to his extensive experience in security and political affairs and his current role in the Supreme National Security Council.
Mojtaba Khamenei
- Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Although his candidacy has not been confirmed, there have been reports that he may hold senior positions in the Iranian regime.
Chances: If he decides to run, he could have great influence given his lineage and strong relationships within the regime.
They started preparing
The official Tasnim agency reported that some sources reported that Parviz Fattah, Mehrdad Bazarbash and Ali Reza Zakani may run in the upcoming presidential elections. The agency reported that some of these individuals began preparing electoral headquarters and began political consultations. However, the candidacy of these individuals has not been officially and conclusively announced.
The presidential elections for the fourteenth session are scheduled to be held on July 8.
Who is the luckiest?
- Iranian affairs expert Hani Suleiman told Sky News Arabia, “Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf is the most prominent candidate currently, based on various analyzes that indicate that he is the most likely to run.”
Suleiman believes that other figures such as Ali Shamkhani, Saeed Jalili, and Mohsen Rezaei come in second place in terms of opportunities.
Suleiman adds, “There are figures like Mehrdad Bazarbash who may have an important role, especially if supported by institutions such as the Revolutionary Guard, which seeks to control the economic file and infrastructure, which makes Bazarbash a potential option.”
Less fortunate candidates
- Suleiman considers that some names, such as Mojtaba Khamenei, may still be possible, but their chances are less, especially in light of the current conditions.
He also believes that figures who were critical of the regime’s performance, such as Ahmadinejad, may have limited opportunities.
Internal and external challenges
- Suleiman emphasizes that the challenges facing the Iranian regime in this sensitive period require a candidate who can calm the Iranian street and reduce the size of the opposition to ensure the stability of the political and security conditions in the country.
Rob Macaire, the former British ambassador to Iran, asked in a briefing for the Atlantic Council Institute that the upcoming elections will pose some challenges for the regime’s leaders: “To what extent will they allow an open space? Will they prefer a cleric who might be seen as a potential successor to Khamenei in the future, or a technocrat?”
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