I start today with a deep pain and a dull anger. My deepest condolences go out to the families and relatives of those who have lost their lives in the catastrophe of the cold drop which has mainly affected the Valencian Community, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia. Nothing can compensate for the loss of loved ones and the emptiness they leave. We are human beings and we consider ourselves safe and protected from the vicissitudes of everyday life until the indomitable force of nature shows us weak, vulnerable and expendable in the face of it. phenomena that seem apocalyptic to us because we do not consider them as part of life. They are harbingers of death. In a way, like warexcept that we cause the latter directly and we are responsible for everything it causes.
This week that begins will bring another stormthis time defined in the social and political sphere and limited to the USA. By virtue of that strange phenomenon that we know by hyperglobalizationis going to affect us all regardless of the continent on which we live. Never before has so much money been invested in a campaign in the United States presidential elections. Never have the positions been so opposed and the forecasts so equal. They cross paths daily terrible insults and accusations linked to a social polarization that is scary due to the violent rejection of the “other” that it implies.
In these elections the House of Representatives (the equivalent of our Congress of Deputies), and one third of the Senate. So not only is the president of the United States elected, but it is also decided what easy or difficult what it will be to carry out the presidential initiatives, depending on the predominant color in both chambers.
It is, to say the least, shocking that a state phenomenon has such an impact on the world as a whole. This imperfect multipolar model -which is almost bipolar- makes the significance of the result of the American elections what the Anglo-Saxons call a “game changer”, a disruptive element. And it is because, depending on the winner, geopolitics will produce new alignmentssome upheaval and a new geoeconomic horizon in the short and medium term.
Thinking about the different current conflict scenarios, may he win Harris either trump It means, although it may not seem like it at first glance, continuity in foreign policy regarding China and with growing economic confrontation. Increased pressure, if Trump wins, on the Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine and Iran especially. In the case of Ukraine, the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is the most pronounced, not in vain Trump throughout the campaign he has raised his commitment to ending the conflict by means of duress without us knowing very well how he intends to do it. Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance has taken charge sweeten the message in relation to the NATO. Let no one be mistaken about Trump’s vision: the “freeloader” countries that do not pay for their defense should defend themselves.
In the same way, the pressure at European Union to align economically with the United States in one direction or another regarding the tariffs to China It will grow, regardless of who governs, although if Trump does the manners are probably more abrupt and the most aggressive speech. But here we should not forget the old slogan from Bush Sr., “America must prevail,” America must prevaila concept that “means”: first and foremost, the United States of America and its interests. There is no need to regretwe must be realistic and consistent: we are where we have decided to be.
A war note to that horizon with Trump as the winner. The likelihood of tensions growing in the Indo-Pacific will be greater under Trump, especially around Taiwan and to case belli What would its declaration of independence mean? The combat actions Israel will continue to have the same if not more support from Washington and it cannot be ruled out that the pressure on Iran go associated with direct actions to destroy or at least delay the Iranian nuclear program in terms of obtaining nuclear capacity for military use. And finally, regarding the conflict in Ukraine, no one is in a position to know how he will achieve what he has promised: end the conflict in 24 hours. Beyond a campaign phrase, the firm determination to stop the conflict quickly, mediate its solution and establish the conditions for a lasting peace agreement shines through. So be it.
The horizon with the president Kamala Harris will probably be continuitydespite the fact that she affirms that it is a new era regarding the presidency of Biden. The broad lines in foreign policy and defense They will be maintained and the center of gravity of these will be – just as with Trump – in the Indo-Pacific. The deal with the European Union will be more benevolent in appearancebut just as damaging for us in terms of loss of competitiveness. As much as it hurts to admit it, we are considered expendable in the big issues that will shape the power structures and international relations in the second half of the 21st century.
As European Union We are participant observers of a reality in which we hardly intervene except to nod and align because we do not have strategic autonomy. We also do not have a consolidated collective will and, therefore, we cannot achieve unity of effort. That is solely and exclusively our responsibility.
The lightness of who we are, our seemingly accepted lightness, leads us to irrelevance first and to our certain disappearance afterwards. There is little time and few opportunities left to right a course that is leading us to disaster. It would be advisable to change course or evacuate the shipalthough like in the Titanic the orchestra continues playing and it seems that nothing happens. It is time for difficult and unpopular decisionsof firm and committed statesmen, and to recover the nerve and drive that made us reach unknown levels of well-being and that now we seem to want to squander, simply because we believe that they are a right that we must demand. Without determination there is nothing but goodism and inconsistency. The destiny of all depends on each of us.
#lightness #transcendence #Opinion #Francisco #Gan #Pampols
