Hostilities between Hamas militant forces and the Israeli Army have reached one of the highest points in the more than 100 days of conflict, with new sources of regional tension. The latest external attack has been the military confrontation between Pakistan and Iran, a country that was already involved in the conflict due to its proximity to the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, groups that have challenged Israel and its allies.
The violence has spread beyond Gaza's borders and the rest of the world is watching closely. The attacks carried out by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas on October 7 provoked a brutal reaction from Israel, which intensified bombings on the Gaza Strip and ground operations in the occupied West Bank, causing the death of thousands of people and the forced displacement of millions more.
And with the war, the international community's fears about an escalation in the Middle East region have come true.
The ravages of the conflict have provoked an intense regional reaction that has led to the indirect involvement of multiple actors, including groups such as the Houthis of Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, that have acted from their areas of influence and under the protection of regional powers.
From the attacks on ships heading to Israel through the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels, to the Iranian bombings in Iraq and Pakistan, Hostilities in various parts of the Middle East seem to be the perfect ingredients for a rapid escalation of the war in Gaza, which has already generated pockets of instability in the area.
Here are the key points in the regional framework related to the war between Israel and Hamas.
Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel explode
Initially sending messages of condemnation towards Tel Aviv and its allies in Washington for the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah has been intensifying its campaign against Israel, going so far as to use its military arsenal to enter into direct confrontation with the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Engaged in a daily exchange of missiles that began days after October 7, Hezbollah and Israel have intensified their conflictive past, both involved in a direct conflict in 2006, due to the Hamas offensive in supposed defense of the Palestinian cause, for which the Shiite militia has shown its constant support both in speech and in arms. .
After the bombings on January 2 in Beirut, that claimed the life of Hamas' second-in-command, concerns in the international sphere are growing due to the fear of direct intervention by Israeli forces in Lebanese territory. Threats between both sides have increased in the last month.
“Whoever thinks about war with us will regret it,” warned Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on January 6. His words received a response from the head of the Northern Command of the Israeli Army,Ori Gordinwho asserted on January 16 that his forces are “more prepared than ever” for a ground offensive against the Lebanese militia.
However, Hezbollah has not been the only armed group that has positioned itself against the Israeli offensive within the Gaza Strip.
The Houthis in Yemen, Israel's nightmare in the Red Sea
Another external flank in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in the Red Sea, an extremely important maritime transit route for the transit of Western ships that has been interrupted by constant attacks by Yemen's most powerful rebel faction: the Houthis.
Yemeni rebels who managed to wrest political control of Sanaa, the country's capital, from the weakened ruling party backed by Saudi Arabiahave carried out multiple kidnappings and attacks on numerous vessels transiting the Red Sea, affecting international trade and the international economy at a level never seen before.
Their main targets are the ships of both Israel and its Western allies, intensifying attacks against American and British ships, which has provoked the West's response and the formation of an alliance made up of France, United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, United States and the Seychelles islands.
In addition, Washington and London have escalated their hostilities with direct bombings on Yemeni territory, in an effort to persuade the rebels to cease assaults on the sea route.
“When you say if they are working, are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes,” responded US President Joe Biden to questions about whether or not the bombings on Yemen are fulfilling their objective. to stop the violence in the Red Sea.
Despite their geographical remoteness and their different modus operandi, the Houthis and Hezbollah have an important link that could be the key to understanding their true role in this tangled conflict: Iran's support.
Iran, a cog in regional hostilities
Since the start of Tel Aviv's recent offensive in the Palestinian territories, Iran has been one of the most forceful states in the region in expressing its support for Hamas, with whom he is presumed to have economic and arms tieswhich has placed it as a fundamental piece in this silent regional escalation of the conflict.
Traditional regional military power and counterweight to Israel in the Middle East, Tehran maintains a network of alliances with various armed actors in different parts of the area, with strong links with Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Although Iran has a threatening discourse regarding Israel, both countries have not entered into direct confrontation, however, Tehran claims that it bombed an Israeli spy base in Iraq on January 16. This fact, although it has not earned a response from Tel Aviv, has set off all the alarms for a possible direct confrontation between the two, since Iran accused Israel of planning “terrorist attacks” from said base.
However, Iranian activity in the region cannot only be understood by its interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The terrorist attacks on January 3, attributed to the jihadist group Islamic State, which left more than 80 dead in Iran during an event commemorating the death of General Qassem Soleimani, assassinated in 2020 by the United States in Iraq, They exposed a possible weakness in Tehran's security forces which, according to some experts, has provoked a regional legitimation campaign undertaken by Iran.
“The government and the military have been under immense pressure,” said Abdullah Khan, an analyst at the Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies, who has described the Iranian bombings on Pakistan on January 16 as a move by Tehran to assert itself as the great military power in the area, preventing uprisings by separatist groups on its borders.
A photograph released by the Iranian Army Media Office on October 28, 2023 shows missiles being launched during a military exercise in Isfahan province.
© AFPUnder the excuse of attacking bases of the Yeish al Adl terrorist group, located in the Pakistani separatist region of Balochistan, Iran bombed the border area, causing the death of two minors, according to the Government of Islamabad. The above has been understood as an Iranian attempt to demonstrate its military muscle to groups hostile to its regime.
“Iran celebrated (Tuesday's) attack in its media and the Pakistani public perception of a strong military is not what it used to be,” Khan added.
With Iran on alert over the role of its allies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, coupled with its ambition to increase its influence in regional affairs and displace Western interests in the Middle East, Regional stability seems to hang by a thread.
In a 21st century marked by globalization and the rapid decentralization of world military power, contemporary armed conflicts can hardly be contained within the borders of the protagonists.
Israel, under pressure from a large sector in the West that calls for restraint in its attacks, faces several battle fronts, which can represent an important leveler in favor of the Palestinian militia.
With AP, Reuters and local media
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