Election political polls today 16 April 2024
ELECTION POLITICAL POLLS – Forza Italia makes a leap forward. According to the latest survey by Termometro politica, with interviews collected between 9 and 11 April 2024, in view of the European elections in June, the party founded by Silvio Berlusconi, also thanks to the agreement between the Azzurri and Noi Moderati, passes from 7.1% to 8.0% net.
Lega and Fdi also rise in the centre-right, both at 0.2%: they are at 8.8% and 27.8% respectively. Conte's M5s, on the other hand, lost three tenths and went to 15.6%; while Schlein's PD remains stable at 19.5%, despite the scandals in Puglia and the judicial investigations in Piedmont. The joint venture between Renzi and Bonino already seems to bring the first results: at the first survey, the “United States of Europe” starts from 5.1%. Share, however, is at 3.9%. Michele Santoro's movement (Pace Terra Dignità) continues to rise and has already reached 2.4%. Cateno De Luca's aggregative proposal, Libertà, also rises to 1.4%.
As regards trust in Giorgia Meloni, according to electoral political polls, the prime minister regains some consensus (+0.6%) and is close to the psychological threshold of 40% approval. Among those who have a lot and enough trust the figure reaches 39.5%. Distrusted, however, by 60.1% of Italians.
HOW POLLS ARE DONE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling companies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to interview that is sufficiently large and representative of the population they intend to analyse. In the case of surveys on party voting intentions or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the margin of error indicated is 3 percent with a confidence interval of 95 percent. The greatest difficulty for pollsters is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population. Interviews for electoral political surveys are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
Read also: All surveys
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