In recent months, presenting quarterly results meant for Fluidra little less than going to the dentist since it was obliged to adequately explain to the market what was due to the lower growth of its business and the change in environment that the sector was now experiencing. of the pool globally.
Now you can finish the digestion of excess inventories that had accumulated in the supply chain after the boom What the pandemic and its outcome meant for the entire sector in general and for Fluidra in particular. With a much more normalized model, its third quarter results have been very well received by the investment community.
In fact, they have been the main catalyst for the rebound that the Catalan shares have experienced in recent days and that have led it to exceed the 25 euro zone and reach maximums not seen since April 2022, more than two years ago.
In the aforementioned presentation last week they even raised the guidance thanks to the increase in volumes, allowing leverage to be reduced to 2.3 times. Now the company expects to obtain revenues of between 2,060 and 2,100 million euros, an EBITDA between 460 and 480 million and a cash profit per share between 1.14 and 1.2 euros. “The results of North America and Europe stand out above the others, which returns to growth after falling 5% in the first half of the year,” they explain from Banco Sabadell.
“We expected a strong boost in the North American segment after the good results of some competitors such as Pentair and Hayward,” Jefferies points out. “We also highlight good news from the distribution sector leader there, Pool Corp, which anticipated a return to normality in sales and the supply chain,” they add.
The consensus of analysts collected by FactSet puts the EBITDA that the group will achieve this year at 467, within the expected range. These days, analysts have also raised their valuations. However, the average of them, which exceeds 24 euros, is still below its current stock market price. Likewise, half of the analysis houses recommend taking positions and only 11% suggest undoing them.
“In February we argued that Fluidra was going to return to growth and that there was potential for improvement in analyst estimates, which would result in a better evolution of the stock once the market can once again focus on the good fundamentals of the business. “, they point out in Berenberg. “Their results showed that these predictions are materializing despite the macro uncertainty that persists, although after the strong revaluation of the stock market in recent months, the upward potential is more limited,” they continue. “However, we think they can continue to do well in the coming year as expectations gradually improve,” they add.
“Despite the macro environment, there are good reasons to believe in the good trend in growth and margins for next year,” conclude Berenberg. Thus, the consensus provides that the company once again exceeds 500 million of ebitda in 2025, also supported by the cost reduction program.
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