Fear of an escalation of the conflict moderates US retaliation against pro-Iran militias in Syria and Iraq

The retaliation was not only expected. Also announced by the president of the United States, Joe Biden, who assured on Tuesday that he had already decided how his country would react to the drone attack against a US base in Jordan two days earlier, in which three soldiers died. However, its materialization this Friday, with attacks against more than 85 targets in Iraq and Syria by militias backed by Iran, has increased concern about a possible expansion of tension in the Middle East to more and more actors and countries. The attacks killed 23 people guarding the facilities in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, with observers on the ground, and in Iraq, 16, including civilians who were near the places attacked, the Government has reported. . According to the United States Central Command (Centcom), military aviation used 125 precision munitions.

As was also expected, the attacked countries, and Iran, have criticized the retaliation. The Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani – who has been combining conciliatory statements with Washington with requests that the forces of the coalition against ISIS that he leads leave the country – assured that the bombings “put the security of Iraq and the region on the brink of the abyss.” The Government of Syria, supported by Russia and Iran in the war that has been going on for 13 years, called the United States the “main source of global instability,” while Tehran spoke of a “strategic error” by Washington that “involves it even more.” in the region and “conceals the crimes” of Israel in Gaza.

Other more distant voices have warned of the risk that the attacks will further burn the region at a time when there is no shortage of gasoline. Without expressly mentioning them, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has warned that the Middle East is “a cauldron that can explode” and has asked “everyone” to make efforts to avoid it.

Despite the alarm signals, the type of retaliation chosen by the United States, at least in this first phase, does not seem to show interest in expanding the conflict. Washington – which in 2020 killed General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Al Quds Force (the regional arm of the Revolutionary Guard, which directs the regional franchises), near Baghdad – in response to several deadly attacks suffered by its troops in Iraq – he could have opted for the targeted assassination of some militia leader or to target Tehran more directly.

The targets have instead been “command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets and missiles, unmanned aerial vehicle warehouses, and ammunition supply chain and logistics facilities,” according to Centcom. Rather, it was about conveying the message that the president, Joe Biden, summarized: “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who try to harm us know this: if you harm an American, we will respond,” he added.

Precisely specifying the impact of the attacks to avoid a drift of the conflict seems to explain, according to analysts and experts, why they were so prudent, that is, limited in their objectives. CNN analyst Nick Paton Walsh calls this first strike a “comparatively limited” response to the worst loss of American life in the region in nearly three years. The Biden Administration, the expert explained, has before it “an almost impossible task: hit hard enough to show that you are serious, but also make sure that your opponent takes the blow without lashing out in turn.”

Added to this is the speed with which Iran distanced itself from the attack on the base in Jordan, which left Washington in a delicate position: interpreting it as a mere ploy to throw the stone and hide the hand would have meant raising the tension several degrees. . Also the assumption that the announcement by the group that claimed responsibility for it, Kataeb Hezbollah, that it was suspending all its operations against US troops would not have happened without pressure from Tehran, interested in goading Israel and its main ally, but not in a conflict. open.

Difficult balance

A difficult balance, preventing new attacks on its forces deployed in the region without provoking the extension of the conflict, is the idea that is most repeated in the few reactions to the US retaliation. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has confirmed that the coup is only the opening salvo of an offensive whose scope and schedule is kept secret. The attacks are only “the beginning of our response,” Austin has said, echoing Biden's statement that “it will unfold at times and places of our choosing.”

The barrage of attacks lasted just 30 minutes, John Kirby, head of strategic communications at the National Security Council, specified on Friday, and was decided based on time. “It was designed based on time, [atacamos] when we saw the best weather opportunity. The good weather came today [por el viernes] and we carried it out,” explained Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Washington is analyzing satellite images to assess the extent of the damage, that is, the number of casualties among pro-Iran fighters, although the White House believes it was a success, Kirby noted. The spokesman also stated that the Baghdad authorities were notified in advance – something they deny – and that there has been no contact with Iran since Sunday's drone attack, carried out by Kataeb Hezbollah, part of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a denomination generic that brings together different armed factions supported by Tehran.

That attack, in which they also resulted at least 25 soldiers injured, was not unusual (hundreds have been recorded in recent years, particularly since the start of the war in Gaza), but it was the only one that penetrated the defenses and reached the barracks. The drone was mistaken for one of its own that had to return to the base at that time to Tower 22, the outpost attacked near the border with Syria, according to US commanders.

Since October 7, the day the Hamas attack on Israel sparked the war in Gaza that has left more than 27,000 dead and triggered skirmishes in the region, from Lebanon to Yemen to Syria and Iraq, US forces deployed in the Middle East have suffered more than 160 attacks by militias linked to Iran, according to the Pentagon's count. And Sunday's was the first lethal one.

The retaliatory action has, however, been much less bold than the assassination of Soleimani, a big game compared to the latest unnamed targets. It occurred in the last stretch of Donald Trump's presidency. The difference is that then there was no war in the region like the one in Gaza, and also that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which Biden intended to limit to focus on stopping China, has ended up exploding in his hands in the final stretch of his presidency. , and in full campaign for re-election. This Saturday is precisely the first date on the Democratic primary calendar, in South Carolina, when the latest polls corroborate the advantage in voting intentions ahead of November 5 of his rival, the Republican candidate Donald Trump. The latest poll, published this Friday by CNN, gives the former president 49% compared to 45% for the Democrat.

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