09/01/2024 – 11:34
The increase of just over 1.50% in oil prices and signs of stimulus announcements for the Chinese economy are insufficient to encourage appreciation of the Ibovespa. Internally, doubts persist regarding payroll tax relief, which has caused instability in the relationship between the government and Congress.
“There is fiscal caution, instability”, observes the chief strategist of the Laatus Group, Jefferson Laatus.
North American stock futures indices and European stock markets fall, amid conflicting data in Europe and awaiting clues about falling interest rates around the world, especially in the United States.
The great expectation is for the release of the American CPI, a consumer inflation index that will be released on Thursday. Today, only the trade balance was released, the deficit of which fell 2% in the monthly comparison of November, to US$ 63.21 billion, compared to the forecast of -US$ 64.7 billion.
According to PRX Capital in a report, variations of 0.2% are expected in both the core CPI and the full index. As a result, American inflation would reach a 12-month accumulated level of 3.2%, after 3.1% in November last year. In other words, above the 2% target.
“The markets are waiting for something relevant on the agenda, they are very dependent and reactive to data, mainly on employment and inflation”, reinforces Victor Hugo Israel, specialist at Blue3 Investimentos, remembering that last week the highlight was the report of US employment, the so-called payroll, while in this case there will be the release of the wholesale CPI and PPI, on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
In Europe, conflicting data came out, with industrial production in Germany falling, contradicting stability forecasts, and the unemployment rate in the euro zone falling.
In Brazil, the meeting scheduled for today between Senate leaders with President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) to debate the MP for compensation for payroll tax relief is on the radar.
Earlier, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) reported that the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) fell 0.67% in the first preview of January, compared to a decline of 0.26% in the same reading in December. The fall is unable to encourage the Stock Exchange, given that future interest rates are rising despite the decline in US Treasury bond yields. The spot dollar also rises against the real.
At Ibovespa, the highlight was the fall in shares of large banks, with a greater decline in Bradesco, after Goldman Sachs recommended selling the shares. At 11:21 am, Bradesco fell 1.79% (ON) and -1.55% (PN).
Yesterday, the Ibovespa closed up 0.31%, at 132,426.54 points. At 11:22 am, it gave up 0.52%, at 131,770.77 points, after opening at 132,423.55 points, with zero variation. At its lowest point, it reached 131,419.32 points, with a decline of 0.76%.
“Today, here and abroad there is a realization of profits, a technical achievement, nothing structural”, says Israel, specialist at Blue3 Investimentos.
With oil prices rising close to 2.00%, Petrobrás shares rose, but with less intensity, between 0.49% (PN) and 0.76% (ON). Vale ON fell 0.89%, above the 0.25% drop in iron ore in Dalian, China.
#Fall #fiscal #uncertainty #push #Ibovespa #rise #oil
