Now that the agreement between Sainz and Williams for 2025 has been made official, there are several evaluations that are coming to the surface. Six months have passed since Ferrari made the hiring of Lewis Hamilton official, and the arrival of the seven-time world champion in Maranello has had, as its first effect, the forced entry of Carlos Sainz into the driver market.
Since February 1st, the Spaniard’s management has begun a long and meticulous work made of meetings and more or less in-depth discussions to ensure Sainz a future in Formula 1. After six months, Carlos had to put pen to paper, a forced choice that is not in line with his aspirations. The adventure with Williams could surprise, but today (at least on paper) it represents a drastic reduction of his ambitions, at least in the short term.
There were opportunities, however. Unlike last year, all the top teams had to renegotiate the position of at least one driver, yet Sainz remained out of the game. Why? Many fans and many insiders are wondering. Is it possible that a driver coming off three seasons in which he won Grand Prix and regularly visited the podium has not been the object of attention from Red Bull, Mercedes and Aston Martin? What are the reasons? It’s a complex puzzle.
Before moving on to the individual scenarios, there is one aspect to underline that is present in all top teams. In top teams, every activity is planned well in advance, decisions are pondered at length and once taken they are rarely changed.
Teams have gone from being medium-small companies with a manager who is often the owner of the team itself, to the volumes of a medium-sized company, with structured leadership and a comprehensive program that has taken away a lot of elasticity. It follows that if a sudden variable arrives on the market (as in the case of Sainz) the opportunity is not always seized because it would involve a change in programming.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Prema Racing
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
The Verstappen Dream, the Antonelli Project
Entering the first case, namely Mercedes, corporate management played a role. Sainz’s candidacy to replace Hamilton was taken for granted from the outside, but in reality Carlos only made a brief appearance in Toto Wolff’s agenda. The first reason is that the Mercedes team principal hoped (and continues to hope even though he knows that we are in the order of 1%) in a divorce between Verstappen and Red Bull. Signing Sainz early would have meant definitively closing the doors to Max, and Wolff had no intention of doing that.
Then there is the ‘programming’ aspect that involves Antonelli. Kimi has been contractually tied to Mercedes since 2018, and his entry into the junior program has involved a significant investment. Antonelli’s career has been planned for some time and his debut in Formula 1 is a fundamental step in the journey.
When Hamilton told Mercedes last January that their relationship would end at the end of the season, Wolff had no doubts, planning an intense testing program for Antonelli with the 2022 single-seater (started two months ago) that will end in the fall. An investment of several million euros that can only be justified by one reason. Evaluating Sainz’s candidacy would have meant changing plans, reviewing fixed points established for some time and risking nullifying the investment in the junior program.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo credit: Red Bull Content Pool
Saving the Junior Program and Max’s Comfort Zone
Even at Red Bull the junior program had an impact, albeit less. Sainz was under the wing of Helmut Marko from 2010 to 2017, when he was accompanied to the exit (direction Renault) due to lack of opportunities.
After some prosperous years, in which the Red Bull Junior tank ensured the arrival in Formula 1 of Daniel Ricciardo, Sebastian Bueni, Daniil Kvyat, Jean-Eric Vergne, Max Verstappen and Pierre Gasly, the system has jammed. In addition to Verstappen, today the three single-seaters of the Red Bull family are driven on the track by Sergio Perez, Yuki Tsunoda (Honda nursery) and the returning horse Ricciardo. Marko can obviously count on a huge dividend of confidence assured by the presence of Max, but for years the nursery has in fact jammed and this aspect does not go unnoticed.
Drawing again from the external market (as happened with Perez) would have meant another empty shot for the junior program. Sainz is a former player, but this does not change the state of things: he was a young player from the youth sector but today he is no longer one.
Marko’s hope is Liam Lawson and the eventual replacement of Perez will be an internal operation, with the return of Ricciardo to Red Bull, and Lawson to the Faenza team. A possible entry of Sainz (with a two-year contract) in place of Perez, would have once again closed the doors of the reference team for Lawson and also for Tsunoda. Then there is also the quiet life after the storm of last winter, at this moment creating the best comfort zone around Verstappen is fundamental and in this perspective the figures of the drivers already under contract fit together better than that of Sainz.
Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin F1 Team
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
Alonso is the perfect alibi for Lance
The last ‘no’ Sainz had to take was that of Aston Martin. On paper, the Alonso-Carlos ‘swap’ seemed the most logical choice: to thank with honor a great driver (now forty-three years old) and welcome a twenty-nine year old hungry for revenge. No one would have cried scandal. Lawrence Stroll’s choice was different and in line with his vision.
Since Lance arrived in Formula 1, his father always wanted to have a driver who was older and had a lot of experience at his side. A sort of shield to justify a possible difference in performance with the different status.
At his debut in Williams alongside Lance was Felipe Massa, at Racing Point (which later became Aston Martin) Sergio Perez, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso followed. The figure of a young driver has never been welcome since Stroll Sr. took over at Silverstone and Sainz’s CV (‘only’ four years older than Lance) did not fit well with the required identikit: the figure of Carlos was considered too competitive with Lance.
Faced with the prospect of finding yourself behind your teammate, it is better if the latter is much older and perhaps with a top-level palmares, i.e. the perfect portrait of Fernando Alonso.
#Sainz #Heres #doors #top #teams #closed