F1 | Red Bull: Horner’s strategy is to avoid low blows

Since 8 November 2005, the Red Bull Racing project has been supported by three pillars: Christian Horner, Helmut Marko and Adrian Newey. With the departure of the technical mind that helped bring the team 13 world titles and 117 Grand Prix victories, the future of the team is forced to undergo a major change.

The technical leaders seem to have been armored, with Pierre Waché in the role of manager, together with Enrico Balbo and Ben Waterhouse. However, the earthquake that shook the team starting in February may not have exhausted its effects.

There are two leading figures, Max Verstappen and Marko, who are still evaluating their future. The two are linked on a contractual front, a departure of the Austrian consultant would allow Verstappen to be able to close his contract which expires naturally at the end of the 2028 season.

It’s a balancing act that Horner is carrying out, committed to designing the post-Mateschitz Red Bull. The aftermath of the power struggle triggered by last February’s sexgate is evident, and it is difficult to hypothesize that there will still be room for Marko in Horner’s future vision. Since Red Bull has existed, the final say on the choice of drivers has always been that of Dr. Helmut, making Horner a team principal with less power than many of his colleagues in the same role.

However, Horner needs Verstappen, a very precious piece in the team’s future and, for this reason, at the moment everything seems to be proceeding along the lines of an armed peace. The negotiation between Max and Mercedes was fed to the media not only on a whim of Toto Wolff, when it comes out like this the other side also has its own reasons for making everything public knowledge. It is a confrontation, the one between the Verstappen clan and Horner, in which everyone brings their best weapons to the table.

Max defends Marko’s position, and this explains his threat to leave the team. On the other hand, Verstappen wants a competitive single-seater, and with a view to 2025, Red Bull remains the best option.

Carlos Sainz discusses with Max Verstappen: will they be teammates next year?

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Carlos Sainz awaits developments

An intricate skein that will become clearer in the coming weeks, where further twists cannot be ruled out. In this scenario, many are watching the developments with great interest, such as Carlos Sainz.

If Marko remains operational in his role, the tandem of Red Bull drivers for 2025 will remain unchanged, with Sergio Perez called to sign a renewal for one season. If Horner were to obtain full powers also over the choice of drivers, Sainz’s possibilities would increase considerably, and it is above all for this reason that Carlos’ management has asked Audi for time.

The stalemate is wanted by the Verstappen clan with the interested complicity of Wolff, who is careful not to announce his post-Hamilton plans until Max has decided the near future, i.e. what he will do in 2025.

If Mercedes broke the delay by confirming other choices, it would be much easier for Horner to put Marko on the door since Verstappen would not be able to count on alternatives capable of paying him a worthy salary. He would have the contractual possibility to leave the team but not the convenience to do so.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB20

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

The most likely scenario today is that of 2025 with Marko and Verstappen still in place. This choice would guarantee Max to aim for what should be his fifth world title and, above all, he will have time to get a more detailed idea of ​​the technical potential of the Red Bull of the future, i.e. without Newey and with its own power unit.

In 2026, the Mercedes door will still be open regardless of who will be called upon to replace Hamilton, given that George Russell’s contract will expire at the end of next season. Even if the dispute could end in the short term without any other major twists, from a 2026 perspective any scenario is possible, and in this case, imagining Verstappen out of Red Bull also seems probable.