By Carlo Platella
New year, same script. Formula 1 finds Max Verstappen in the dominant role, proving to make the difference despite an already excellent car. The first of the non-Red Bulls was 25 seconds behind the checkered flag, compared to 38 in the last edition. The advantage of the world champions though it doesn't change much in the numbersas well as in the areas where the opponents get close, starting with Ferrari.
Verstappen's aggression
In the first part of the race held on the softer tyre, the numbers show an RB20 1.2 to 1.4 seconds faster than its illustrious progenitor. After the struggle of the first laps, Verstappen maintains a remarkable consistency of pace, while in the last edition he saw his performance deteriorate by up to 6 tenths during the stint. Even Mercedes, the only pursuer to travel in free air with George Russell, shows a good consistency of pace, while in 2023 the degradation with the soft had reached one second per lap. Furthermore, on a soft compound and with a full tank of fuel, the 2024 Silver Arrow is on average 2 seconds faster than the previous W14.
The central stage on the hard compound sheds light on Ferrari's progress, for a long time with a semi-clear track after Carlos Sainz overtook George Russell. With the same mix, the SF-24 proves to be 2 seconds faster than the Rossa 2023, earnings equivalent to those expressed at Red Bull. The Cavallino shows progress especially in tire management, with the Spaniard's times increasing by just 6 tenths over the course of the stint, compared to the worsening of 9 tenths recorded by Leclerc in 2023.
The improvements on degradation are also important at Mercedes. Not only is George Russell on average a second and a half faster than the best Mercedes of 2023, but he also expresses great consistency in pace. Vice versa, Verstappen fails to replicate his excellent tire management seen in the last edition, when the world champion's times were almost constant. In 2024 the Dutchman sees his times rise by 1 second in the central stint, still faster than the competition, but also a sign of a more aggressive driving style, perhaps unsustainable for a still immature Red Bull.
The Red Bull advantage
Overall, in the first stint Red Bull-Verstappen's advantage over Russell's Mercedes is 8 and a half tenths per lap, almost halved from the 1.6 seconds in 2023. However, the performance in the first fraction at Ferrari is unquestionable. With Leclerc slowed down by the brake problem and Sainz still stuck in traffic, it becomes impossible to quantify if and to what extent the Cavallino has shaved off the 7 tenths per lap recorded in 2023.
In the stint on hard rubber, the average delay of Sainz's Ferrari from Verstappen's Red Bull stood at 7 tenths, compared to the 6 achieved by Leclerc in 2023. However, it must be considered that at the time the Monegasque was traveling on tires that were only one lap older than to the world champion, while in 2024 Sainz brought forward his first stop by three rounds. Furthermore, as in 2023, the lap delay between Ferrari and Red Bull is more indicative was growing over the stint, while this year in Bahrain it remained constant, confirming the Red team's progress in managing tire degradation. The delay experienced by Russell's Mercedes compared to Verstappen in the central stage is decidedly larger, with an average of 1.5 seconds at each pass, with the mitigating factor of the 6 laps early with which the Briton made his stop.
The third stint of the race does not allow comparisons with the pacesetters, considering how Red Bull once again uses the softer compounds against the harder ones of the competition. However, the final stage confirms it for Ferrari the role of second force in Bahrain. Not only does Leclerc manage to regain his position in the #63 Mercedes, but Sainz also runs an average of 6 tenths quicker than Russell, the latter with tires 4 laps tireder.
The Bahrain verdict
The first race gives a picture in which the new Red Bull, at least in the hands of Verstappen, expresses the most important progress with the hard tyres, in line with the leap made by Ferrari. The new Red in particular appears to have grown in tire management, improving consistency over times compared to 2023. All this in contrast to Verstappen who, at least on the hard compound, encounters greater degradation. However, tire management is always a delicate issue, being a compromise between riding docility and a fast pace. The impression is that the world champion still has to establish an optimal bond with his RB20, to understand how to best balance aggressive driving with tire care.
Even more than in numbers, compared to 2023 the gap between Ferrari and Red Bull is different in outlook for the rest of the season. Last year's car was a Red that appeared disoriented, unaware of what was happening in the car, like Mercedes. The priority for the season immediately became experimenting and collecting data, to reconstruct the origin of the car's problems. With similar premises, the prospects were for a gap that would continue to grow, compared to a Red Bull that continued to develop to improve load and aerodynamic efficiency. 2024, however, begins with the main pursuers, Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin and McLaren, who find what was predicted in the simulator on the track and who will therefore be able to bring updates to close the gap with the world champions.
Towards Jeddah
With the exception of the supremacy of Red Bull-Verstappen, it is important not to universalize the conclusions of the first race. In an increasingly balanced and therefore human Formula 1, the driver factor cannot take a back seat. For example, the question about remains pending what Ferrari could have expressed in the hands of Leclercstruggling with the brakes for a long time, just as it remains to be seen how far Verstappen can go once he gets to know the RB20 better.
Bahrain is also one of the most severe tracks for tire degradation and rear axle management, qualities opposite to those highlighted by Jeddah, the next round on the calendar, which enhances the front end and the load in fast corners. A year ago the two Red Bull drivers gave everyone a second per lap in the race, which is why it will be interesting to evaluate how the SF-24 will behave next week. The new Rossa remains a fast car in a straight line, but unlike its progenitor it now also releases a lot of downforce. All eyes are also on McLaren, which in Bahrain proved that it still has its strong point in medium-high speed corners. Evolutions, those of Ferrari and McLaren, which become the perfect emblem of Formula 1 2024, in which a lot has changed, but just as much has remained unchanged.
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