F1 | Everyone wants Newey, but what are Adrian's expectations?

Adrian Newey shakes up the Formula 1 market more than a top driver. The “genius” does not speak, but unleashes the imagination of professionals and enthusiasts. He did not speak, but made it known that he no longer wants to stay at Red Bull Racing, although he has a contract valid until the end of 2025. The exit from Milton Keynes, according to previews, should take place early.

First he will have to guarantee Max Verstappen to win his fifth world title in a row next year, with the evolved RB20 which is already being studied by the technical staff of the world champion team.

That relationship of trust with Christian Horner has broken down, the boss to whom he has been closely linked since the first day of the birth of Red Bull Racing in 2006. What created the disagreements was not so much the sexy-gate which shook the team that dominates F1, as well as the new balance of power that is changing the map of a structure that until the day before yesterday seemed monolithic.

Horner, with an extraordinary ability to control his nerves, won the power struggle with the “Austrians”: the team principal found the support of Chalerm Yoovidhya, owner of 51% of Red Bull GmbH, in the tug-of-war with Dietrich Mateschitz's son, Helmut Mark, Oliver Mintzlaff and the other CEO, Franz Watzlawick.

The person who sparked the most controversy was Jos Verstappen in open hostility with Horner, threatening to take Max elsewhere and being seen publicly chatting with Toto Wolff, but the Dutchman has also recently been shielded. In short, Christian has managed to build a miraculous precarious balance that continues to produce doubles for the RB20s.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

And, perhaps, the English manager didn't expect that the breaking point could come from Adrian Newey. In Jeddah Horner had sent a strong message that seemed intended for Max and which, instead, probably also had another recipient…

“The team is what comes first, if there isn't absolute harmony you don't get the performances we're getting. But if there is someone who no longer wants to be part of the team we certainly don't force people to stay with us. The people who are here want to be here, and they are passionate about what they do. This is what allows us to guarantee exceptional results, it is the DNA of Red Bull Racing, and I believe it will continue over time. It's been 20 years and we'll continue for the next 20.”

A clear message that must have opened a watershed in the bond with Adrian. And then Newey's doubts emerge: the “genius” doesn't like the 2026 regulation, which is unbalanced towards the new power unit and is far too armored in terms of aerodynamics.

If we add to all this that the Red Bull Powertrain engine, which should debut with the new single-seaters, does not seem to give encouraging results, it makes clear the scenario of an Adrian ready to take a step back, unwilling to relive the beginning of the era hybrid in 2014, when the Milton Keynes team had suffered from an inadequate Renault power unit.

Pierre Wache, Red Bull technical director

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Not only that, but giving Newey all the credit for the successes may have annoyed the other members of the coaching staff, starting with the technical director, Pierre Waché. The Frenchman (contacted by Maranello) obtained, like the head of aerodynamics, Enrico Balbo, the “gratifications” to stay. With Adrian's exit, they will have to demonstrate that they can extend the winning cycle even without him: they accepted the challenge, trusting that many highly matured professionals have grown in the working group.

What will Newey do? He is chased by Aston Martin, Ferrari and even Mercedes. The Englishman will have contact with the Star management after Miami, a sign that he has not yet signed with anyone. It is true that he is looking for a place to manage his historic cars in Italy, just as it is true that he would like to move his boat to one of our ports, but this does not mean that he has chosen the Cavallino, given that his visits to the Bel Paese would be been frequent recently.

Christian Horner, Team Principal Red Bull Racing

Photo by: John Toscano / Motorsport Images

The situation is much more fluid: Adrian has no intention of taking on the role of technical director of a team, because he would only accept a consultant position, without the obligation to be present at all the GPs. Newey, therefore, could also be tempted to stop at the age of 66 if he does not find the conditions most suitable for him to continue.

Aston Martin has put on the table an offer of 100 million dollars over four years, a figure for a top driver. Does Adrian want to commit to such a long new cycle, up to the threshold of 70 years? This could be the motivation for saying no to dad Stroll, although the challenge of leading the prestigious British brand to victory would be very exciting for him.

Ferrari would also take him half-service: taking him away from Red Bull and counting on his brilliant ideas is very attractive. He could also work remotely (he already does so with the Milton Keynes team when he takes refuge in his house in South Africa) finding a balance with Enrico Cardile's staff. The game is open, very open, but far from decided. Let's expect some surprises…