F1 Baku, Ferrari tries: Pirelli strategies for the race

By Carlo Platella
It will be again Ferrari vs McLaren in Baku, with Oscar Piastri starting from the second spot between the Reds of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz. On one of the most difficult tracks for overtaking, strategy will play a fundamental role in the outcome of the Grand Prix. Simone BerraPirelli’s Chief Engineer, illustrates the situation a few hours before the start and the options available to the teams to surprise their opponents.

Still graining

“The recurring theme this weekend is the relatively low gripeven more than in past seasons”, explains Berra. “Baku is a track that is not used during the year, which is why it is very dirty at the start of the weekend and gradually tends to rubberize. This year it was even dirtier than in the past, with an important evolution”.

As it was already the case in Monza, graining appears to be the main wear phenomenon: “From Friday’s rehearsals we saw some grainingwhich we generally expect here, but also relatively slow times. The track continued to evolve on Saturday, but it hasn’t yet reached a level of grip that would make us think the graining will disappear, which we therefore expect to be a factor in the race.”

“Graining is generated by slippage and heat generation with this low level of grip,” continues Pirelli’s Chief Engineer. “Managing rear tire temperatures so it will be the key to try to extract the best strategy and the best performance”. Traditionally, Ferrari is among the teams most skilled at managing graining, but in Baku it will be a less significant factor than in the victorious home race: “The graining we saw on Friday was not particularly severe, less severe than that experienced two weeks ago in Monza. We don’t have much data on the C3 [la mescola dura]but we expect to have graining on both the medium and hard. Then the track will tend to evolve further and we expect graining to become less important”.

The strategies

Another factor to consider in the race will be the difficulty of overtaking, on a track that Pirelli classifies among the 8-10 most difficult circuits from this point of view: “Despite the very long straight overcoming is not easybecause DRS trains often tend to form. If the person in front has a lot of top speed, it can be difficult to overtake, then defending themselves well in the driven part. Even being in traffic at the wrong time can therefore influence the strategy”.

The strategic framework therefore appears quite clear according to Berra: “We expect it to be a one-stop race with a lot of management in the first half on average, like last year. Unless there is a Safety Car, the pit stop window will be between 13th and 22nd. The pit stop window is quite wide, because someone could try to stop earlier to get some free air or go longer if they have enough pace. We expect a lot more variability than on other circuits”.

“The second stage will obviously be on the hard compound, which seems to be the best for the race, allowing for more consistency. The opposite strategy, hard at the beginning and medium at the end, is a good option on paper, possibly for those who start further back and want to extend the first stage, trying to take advantage of some Safety Car, Virtual Safety Car or red flag. Last year Alpine and Haas did almost the entire race on just one set of compounds.” In this regard, with the exception of Alpine and Mercedes, almost all teams have kept two sets of hard tyres in case of a neutralisation after the first pit stop. Under the Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car, in fact, 10-12 seconds are lost for the tyre change, compared to the 21-22 lost under the green flag.

The variables

At Spa and Monza, teams were surprised by the performance of their tyres in the race, opening up strategic options that were little considered before the start. However, Pirelli does not believe that a similar situation can be repeated in Baku: “No, I don’t expect that. Here we don’t have the variability of the new asphalt like we had in Monza, which was an extra concern for the teams. Here the asphalt has remained relatively in line with the data from the previous year, there were no resurfacings”.

Berra also denies the predictions that wanted a higher degradation compared to the previous edition: “I expect degradation to be very similar to 2023, for the simple fact that teams will tend to manage a lot. I don’t think we’ll see the real levels of degradation. Last year the degradation was around 0 seconds per lap. Someone even did their best lap on the 40th lap of the stint. This year I expect a similar situation, with a lot of management in the first 13 laps in the driven part, even on hard tyres”.

Despite the almost zero degradation, extending the stint to build a rubber advantage can still be a viable option in the logic of a direct challenge. Pirelli’s Chief Engineer concludes: “Extending the break may make sense. If someone had some extra performance and had managed the first part well, then he could do some laps in free air pushing more, trying to pull away. Maybe he won’t come back in front of the closest opponent, but then he would have a newer tire to push more on in the final, maybe in the last laps where you want to try something more”.