F1 | Audi shakes the market: a poker game begins for Sainz

It's a poker game. At the end of his experience in Ferrari, Carlos Sainz could find himself behind the wheel in a Red Bull uniform, with a single-seater at his disposal to aim for the highest goals in 2025, or in Aston Martin, a team that is investing heavily for the latest leap in quality.

However, there is also the possibility that next season for Carlos the passage to Q2 is not so obvious, because signing with Audi means facing a 2025 with an evolution of the current Sauber, a very different scenario compared to the first two, at least in the short term.

After a month of relative calm, it was Audi itself that gave a jolt to the driver market. Oliver Hoffmann and Andreas Seidl, president and CEO of the program, are pushing the deadline to sign the key driver who will have to start working in the team next season, the last with the Ferrari power units.

Further confirmation of the rumors that have emerged in recent days came yesterday from a response from Helmut Marko regarding the Red Bull driver market: “Normally in the month of April it is a bit early to have a picture of the situation, but obviously we are not alone in the overall scenario. I heard that Audi is applying pressure, and I find it a bit strange that a newcomer has this priority on the driver market.”

In reality, Audi leaders are reading the current situation very well. It is logical to hypothesize that Sainz is at the top of Hoffmann and Seidl's wish list, and it is precisely by thinking early that the two German managers have the best chance of securing Carlos' signature.

On paper there are three possibilities for Sainz with top teams, Red Bull, Aston Martin and Mercedes, but for various reasons both Perez and Alonso could remain in their places. Hamilton's vacated seat would remain, but Toto Wolff has currently passed on other messages, from the desire to have Max Verstappen (who will most likely remain so) to that of betting on Kimi Antonelli, very young but undoubtedly well known at the Brackley headquarters.

The risk that Sainz runs is that of finding himself with the classic match in his hand. As much as Audi is trying to put pressure on the signing of a top-driver contract (in terms of salary), it is unlikely that anything will happen before the Miami Grand Prix.

It is likely that Sainz's management will take time, Carlos' status allows them to ask for a few more weeks before providing an answer, but if there is no indication from the three top teams the 'yes' to Audi could become a forced choice. In Hinwil we are also talking to other riders, for the second seat there are Nico Hulkenberg and Esteban Ocon among the candidates, but obviously Sainz remains the first choice.

It's clear why Audi pressure is bothering Red Bull. The world champion team is greatly appreciating the work done by Perez in this first phase of the season, but Horner and Marko would like to take more time before deciding whether to confirm 'Checo' (usually increasingly performing in the first half of the championship) or evaluate alternatives on the market, a list in which Sainz is in the very top positions.

If Carlos were to join Audi quickly, Red Bull would lose the first option, with few alternatives capable of guaranteeing (at least on paper) greater added value than the current Perez. In the apparent calm we wait for who will make the first move, then there will be a domino effect, everything will be a consequence.