05/22/2024 – 11:25
The cautious situation abroad, before the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank) at 3 pm and the balance sheet of Nvidia, from the US technology sector, contaminates the Ibovespa. Most North American stock markets fall and oil falls above 1.00%, while Treasury yields rise.
The movements reflect uncertainties regarding the start of the monetary easing process in the United States, given resilient inflation.
The 2.73% increase in iron ore in Dalian, China, does not even encourage Ibovespa – the fifth in a row. Only Vale’s shares reacted moderately: they rose 0.47% around 11 am.
The fall in the Bovespa Index somewhat reflects the decline in oil prices, says Mônica Araujo, equity strategist at InvestSmart XP, despite the rise in ore prices. “We don’t know if this increase in ore is structural or occasional. Therefore, the investor prefers not to take too much position, while waiting for Nnvidia’s balance sheet after the markets close. He will keep an eye on the company’s provisions even more than on the results themselves. The market will look at what the company will indicate regarding growth ahead,” she says.
On Tuesday, B3’s main indicator closed down 0.27%, at 127,411.55 points, the third negative closing.
In Brazil, doubts also persist regarding monetary policy, in addition to fiscal and inflationary issues, which has led to the perception that the basic interest rate will end this year in double digits and no longer in the 9.00% range as previously estimated in the market. .
“We estimate that the Selic will be reduced to 10.25% per year in mid-June; and will be maintained at this level for an extended period, at least until mid-2025”, assesses LCA Consultores in a report. “But this prospect of an additional Selic cut in June is conditioned on risk accommodation”, he adds.
For Pedro Salles, co-founder and CEO of Legend Investimentos, a high interest rate scenario ends up influencing foreign investors’ allocation sentiment towards Brazil, which could direct them to other markets in Latin America. “High interest rates discourage credit a bit and companies tend to grow less”, he assesses.
On a day with an empty agenda of indicators, investors monitor the participation of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, in a public hearing of the Chamber’s Finance and Taxation Committee on the country’s economic policy.
In fact, Haddad said yesterday that the measures drawn up by the economic team to compensate for the loss of revenue with the extension of payroll tax relief for the 17 sectors and municipalities in 2024 should be released this week.
At 11:20 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.80%, to 126,396.61 points, compared to a decline of 0.81%, at a minimum of 126,377.43 points, after opening at 127,411.55 points, also the maximum, with zero variation. Petrobras yielded close to 0.05%.
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