Expectations that the “economy” will resolve the White House race

Dina Mahmoud (Washington, London)

Western experts in opinion polls and public opinion studies have warned against adopting any advance expectations regarding the expected results of the upcoming presidential race in the United States, even if most indicators indicate that its two sides will be the current Democratic President, Joe Biden, and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump.
Experts pointed out that there are many political and economic factors that are still undecided, which makes it difficult to predict the outcome of any potential confrontation between Biden and Trump, if the Republican billionaire is able to resolve the conflict within his party over the nomination ticket, after he succeeded in seizing the nomination. Winning the first two rounds of internal primaries.
Among these factors, according to a report published on the website of the global market research company Ipsos, is the main issue that is expected to dominate the American political arena and thus the minds of voters in the few months prior to holding the vote on the fifth of next November, as well as the economic situation in the states. United States during the same period, in addition to the support rates that both parties in the race will enjoy during it as well.
According to experts, the picture of the state of the American economy in the current presidential election season will not become clearer except with the announcement of the results of economic performance in the second quarter of the year, which is the period between April and June 2024. Recording strong growth rates during this quarter will enhance the chances of… Biden to remain in the White House, and vice versa, of course.
As for the political level, the features of the issue that could be at the top of Americans’ concerns have not yet been revealed, before they head to the voting centers 9 months from now.
If the main issue is to “save democracy” in the United States, this will mean that the Democratic president’s chances of winning a second term are more likely.
However, if the conversation becomes more focused on the economy, immigration, or reducing crime rates, this matter will benefit the Republican rival, who aspires to return to the White House, after 4 years of absence from it.
In addition, experts say that it is not unlikely that sudden issues will arise during the months that separate us from the voting date, which could pull the rug from under other files, pointing in this context to what happened before the last elections in 2020, when The Corona epidemic has spread, and it has become the main concern of people around the world, reducing Trump’s support rate, and then ultimately losing the race.
At the same time, Ipsos experts said that although Biden’s holding the highest position in the United States gives him tangible weight in the electoral battle, that factor also constitutes a double-edged sword, as it makes him an easy target for criticism from his Republican opponent. Whether it is Trump, as most predictions indicate, or any other politician.