It is expected that the “Together” alliance will get from 200 to 260 seats, which gives it a relative majority that will force it to seek the support of other political groups to pass the bills, knowing that the absolute majority is 289 seats.
Preliminary expectations of prominent institutions for organizing opinion polls showed that the elections that took place on Sunday will lead to a hung parliament.
The right-wing National Rally party achieved a major breakthrough by obtaining between 60 and 100 seats in the National Assembly, according to first expectations.
Thus, Marine Le Pen’s party, which faced Emmanuel Macron in the decisive round of the presidential election, has multiplied the number of its deputies fifteen times and exceeded the ceiling required to form a bloc in the National Assembly, in a precedent for more than 35 years.
The acting president of the far-right National Rally praised the result his party achieved on Sunday in the French legislative elections, describing it as a “tsunami.”
“It’s a blue wave across the country. The lesson this evening is that the French people have made Emmanuel Macron a minority president,” Jordan Bardella told TF1.
If expectations are confirmed, this unusual situation in France is expected to make Macron’s political maneuvering more difficult.
A new coalition – comprising the hard left, socialists and the Greens – is also expected to become the main opposition force, with 150 to 200 members of parliament.
The strong performance of the left-wing coalition, led by that of hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, is expected to make it more difficult for Macron to implement the agenda on which he was re-elected in May, including tax cuts and raising France’s retirement age from 62 to 65.
Macron’s government will still have the power to govern, but only by bargaining with lawmakers. Centrists could try to negotiate on a case-by-case basis with center-left and Conservative lawmakers – with the goal of preventing opposition MPs from being numerous enough to reject the proposed measures.
The government can also sometimes use a special procedure established by the French constitution to adopt a law without a vote.
A similar situation occurred in 1988 under Socialist President François Mitterrand, who then had to seek support from communists or centrists to pass laws.
Once again, this parliamentary election was decided in large part by voter apathy – more than half of the electorate stayed home.
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