European gas reference prices (TTF) jump 4%, to exceed 45.05 euros. after the Austrian firm OMV warned late on Wednesday of a possible power outage by Russia. This option, which had already been in the air for some time, could be brought forward due to a ruling against Gazprom that forces it to pay 230 million of euros to the Austrian firm. A disagreement that could accelerate everything.
“The execution of the damage claim is expected to have a possible negative impact on the contractual relations under the Austrian supply contract between OGMT and Gazprom Export, including a possible cessation of gas deliveries“OMV said. The company still receives about five terawatts of Russian gas through the only eastern gas pipeline still operational, the Soyuz, which passes through Ukraine. The firm has said it is preparing for “small exceptional losses” from this event.
At the beginning of 2024, Russian gas supplies only represented 15% of Europe’s total exports (compared to 40% in 2021). However, despite the fact that there has been this general disconnection, in several countries, such as Austria and Latvia, Russian gas represents 80% of all their exports. In the case of Hungary it is still two thirds and in Slovakia 60% of it comes from the Eurasian giant.
In that sense, although it is not a critical blow for the continent, the supply from Russia is a determining factor for these eastern countries, which still live off the only operational gas pipeline. In any case, in fact it represents greater pressure for the EU as a whole, where the price of gas has been rising and is already at its highest since November 2023. Now, despite the fact that the reserves of the old continent have been filled almost completely, it seems that colder temperatures than recent years are going to increase demand.
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