European elections, historically it is a “free” vote and the polls are wrong…
The European elections, compared to the Political and Regional-Municipal ones, they are a free vote, of opinion. And history shows that surprises in the polls are almost certain. The main examples are the boom of the M5S at 25%, then the record of 40% of the Democratic Party and in 2019 the leap of the League over 35%.
What will happen on Saturday and Sunday? Obviously i surveys they cannot be published but the feelings between the parties are the most disparate and in some ways contradictory.
Brothers of Italy he hopes to be driven by politics and dreams of 30%, but there is also the other side of the coin or a possible flop below 26%. Which would be a resounding defeat for the prime minister.
The PD he is optimistic and aims to exceed 20%, but also pay attention to the boomerang of independent candidates who have made “noise” like Tarquinio, but not only.
THE 5 stars they hope to get closer to the Democratic Party but the fear is that of a sharp drop in turnout in the South, which could have a strong impact: the fear is that of not reaching 15%.
In the League Matteo Salvini focuses above all on the Vannacci effect and aims for double figures (the dream is 11-12%), even if some fear a modest result.
Forza Italia it aims to overtake the League and 10% but as for the M5S the flop of voter turnout in the South could hit the Azzurri.
Among the minor parties, some speak of a “surprise” with Renzi United States of Europe which could take away votes from the Democratic Party, while there is concern about Calendar. Green Left Alliance she has some fears but in the end she is convinced that she will barely be able to reach 4%.
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