After 11pm on Sunday 9 June, when the polls for the European elections close, the Great Game of EU nominations will begin. If everything goes as planned and no big surprises emerge, the basic scenario has already been traced: the first crucial appointment will be the informal dinner of the heads of state and government which will be held in Brussels on the evening of Monday 17 June. From that dinner, in this scenario, a sufficiently clear picture of the appointments should emerge.
The general scheme is as follows: President of the European Commission to the EPP, probably to Ursula von der Leyen; the president of the European Council to the Socialists (the name is not yet clear, those of the Portuguese Antonio Costa and the Danish Mette Fredriksen, who however is Nordic, have been circulated); the High Representative probably to the Liberals of Renew Europe.
The presidency of the European Parliamentalthough it is usually part of the package, it is a distinct game, which is played in the Chamber, rebellious to the leaders’ diktats: it is no mystery that the Maltese Roberta Metsola is aiming for re-election, but Socialists and Liberals could get in the way. If the dinner on 17 June goes as planned, then the European Council on 27 and 28 June, which should approve the ‘top jobs’, could be dedicated more to contents than names.
In corroborating the plausibility of this scenario, the fact that the EPP includes 13 heads of state and government out of 27 helps: without the People’s Party, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to find an agreement in the EUCO. However, the People’s Party governs only one of the five large EU countries, Poland, with Donald Tusk. France is governed by a liberal, President Emmanuel Macron, Germany and Spain by two socialists, Olaf Scholz and Pedro Sanchez, Italy by a conservative, Giorgia Meloni.
Despite the media focusing on the advance of the right, as already in 2019 when Steve Bannon and Mischael Modrikamen’s attempt to create a ‘Black International’ then crashed against the reality of two inexorably divided right-wing parties, the polls available today do not at all support the ‘reversal’ scenario. The latest average published by EuropeElects last Friday, which is not clear whether it can be published in Italy or not (AgCom should decide on the matter tomorrow, three days after the vote: in any case, it is publicly available on the Web), estimates a clear majority for EPP, S&D and Renew.
The Identity and Democracy group, by losing the AfD, abandons the hope of becoming the third group in the Chamber. The ECR should be fine. Of course, he could grow even more with the Hungarians of Fidesz, but he would probably lose the Czechs of Ods and the True Finns, both decidedly pro-Ukrainian and hostile to Orban’s party. It is true that ID and ECR together, even without AfD, could form the second group in the Chamber, but for now it is a science fiction hypothesis, which does not take into account the reality of divided right-wing parties, even more so after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
Above the Greens/Ale and the Left, the fourth ‘group’ is currently the Non-Registered, which includes the Cinquestelle, who will have to find a ‘home’ if they don’t want to spend another legislature in Limbo. It will be necessary to monitor the moves of Buendnis Sahra Wagenknecht, who could reshuffle the scenario to the left of the Socialists. Movements in the Non-Enrolled are likely to be instrumental in shaping the political groups of the next legislature.
The probability that the basic scenario will come true is high, but not very high: there is no shortage of unknowns. Everything will depend on the outcome of the elections: the polls are one thing, the vote is another. According to the findings, the Socialists should hold up, overall, but in Germany the SPD is suffering.
The Liberals appear to be in difficulty both in France (where Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National is expected to lead and could lap the ‘macronists’) than in Germany, where Christian Lindner’s Fdp struggled, while Freie Waehler held up. In Italy the liberal camp is divided, while in Spain the Ciudadanos have disappeared. Not to mention that on June 10 the group should decide whether to oust Mark Rutte’s VVD, which has made an agreement with Geert Wilders’ PVV. It is not a given that it will end with the expulsion of the party of the next NATO general secretary, but it is too early to make predictions.
The Ecr should do well, but pays, in numerical terms, the absence from the first EU country, Germany, while in France Eric Zemmour’s Reconquete should make a non-negligible contribution. The difficulties of the SPD in Germany and of Renaissance in France could complicate the post-election picture and nullify the basic scenario. If the latter were to materialize, the candidate in the field is Ursula von der Leyen, supported by the EPP. However, it must pass first to the European Council, where there is even a rumor, not very well founded, that Charles Michel wants to hinder its encore, and then to Parliament. If von der Leyen is actually indicated by the leaders as president, she will then have to go to the Chamber to be elected, a step that is anything but obvious.
On paper, EPP, S&D and Renew should have enough votes to confirm his nomination. But the vote is secret, the snipers in Strasbourg are in their habitat and no rematches are foreseen: it’s make or break. Therefore, in the event that von der Leyen is indicated by the European Council on 27-28 June, the calculations will first be done carefully, to have sufficient margin and to be sure that she passes. Then, if we are sure we have the numbers, then we will proceed with a plenary session in July; otherwise, it will be postponed until September, so as not to risk seeing the candidate indicated by the leaders rejected in Parliament (in 2019 she passed by just nine votes, thanks to the Cinquestelle).
In this basic scenario, the right are not excluded at all. Or rather: the ECR is not excluded, which has two prime ministers, Giorgia Meloni and Petr Fiala, who, in the eyes of the political center, have proven to be pragmatic and reliable. They voted for the migration pact, they voted for the new stability pact (unlike what the Greens did, for example): in particular, if the first had not been approved before the end of the legislature, it would have been a gift to the right more Eurosceptic, who could have pointed the finger, during the electoral campaign, at the inconclusiveness of Brussels.
If S&D and Renew rule out any political agreement with the ECR, which the leading candidate of the Socialists, Nicolas Schmit, defined as a non-democratic force, the EPP sees it differently. Giorgia Meloni, in the eyes of the Popolari, respects the three red lines (pro-EU, pro-Ukraine and pro-law), unlike other right-wing forces, such as the Polish Pis, the French Rassemblement National and the Hungarian Fidesz. However, to vote for von der Leyen, the Eurodialogue parties of the ECR, such as FDI and ODS, will not necessarily need a political agreement with the EPP, S&D and Renew.
If the Brothers of Italy vote for von der Leyen, they will do nothing but repeat, with roles reversed, what the Polish Pis did in 2019: they voted for the German, in exchange for the Agriculture commissioner, while Fdi voted against, because at the time it had no reason to do otherwise. Furthermore, in the European Parliament the majorities are different from those formed in national parliaments. There is a legislative agreement in principle, but on some dossiers ad hoc majorities are formed.
The objective of the EPP, not from today, is to become the irreplaceable linchpin of the majority: no majority without us, is the watchword of the Popular Party. Today, if the Socialists, Greens, Left and Liberals agree, they can put the EPP in the minority. In the next Parliament this may no longer be the case. The objection from the left towards the possible support of part of the ECR for von der Leyen in the Chamber, on balance, has a relative weight: if Meloni and Fiala support von der Leyen in the European Council, it is not clear why the respective parties cannot then vote on it in Parliament. As long as everything goes like this, in the ‘right’ direction. Which, these days, is anything but a given.
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