Donald Trump’s victory is bad news for practically all European capitals, except in Budapest, where the far-right Viktor Orbán is preparing to uncork champagne at the dinner where he will host the European leaders – Pedro Sánchez has excused his presence due to the emergence of DANA – on the occasion of the celebration of the European Political Community and the informal European Council.
At Thursday’s meeting, which brings together the countries of the European Union and other allies of the continent – among them the United Kingdom and also others in line to join the club – the presence of Volodymyr Zelensky is expected, who is a priori one of those most affected by Trump’s return to the White House. The essential US support for Ukraine has become difficult in recent months due to the reluctance of the Republicans and the possibility of the tap being cut off with Trump is an accurate fear.
Security dependency
That Trump’s victory entails problems from a security point of view is evidenced by the emergency meeting held this Wednesday by the Defense Ministers of Germany and France, Boris Pistorius and Sébastien Lecornu, to analyze the consequences on “defense policy.” of the American elections for Europe.” Europe depends on the US at the defense level and the Republican has come to question the role of NATO in this regard.
Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz also spoke after knowing the results. The Franco-German axis, which operates precisely with its weakened leadership, is trying to take the reins.
“We are not in 2020 or 2016, when it was a big surprise and I think we panicked. Now we have a clearer line and more confidence,” says a community source, who tries to see the glass half full regarding the EU’s prevention in this scenario. A working group was created in the European Commission to prepare for Trump’s eventual return to the White House and the message that some capitals are trying to send is one of calm.
“The Union is a respectable 70-year-old lady, and is no longer the fragile little sister of the United States. She is an adult, vaccinated and resilient, prosperous and democratic, ready to face the challenges of the world and defend her values, with all her partners and allies,” sources from one of the 27 exemplified.
An economic hole due to the trade war
In addition to security, what is most worrying is the trade war at a time when, in addition, the EU is fighting not to be left behind in the productive race due to lethargy in which an uncompetitive industry has entered the world of the century. XXI. Trump imposed tariffs during his first term and has now threatened to up the ante in the fight with China, but also to establish a generic rate of around 10% that would directly affect the community bloc, which has the US as its main trading partner.
A Goldman Sachs study pointed out that the impact on the European economy would be 1% of GDP, that is, about 150 billion euros. The most optimistic, however, see a window of opportunity in the worsening of US trade tensions with powers such as China. “An open trade conflict between China and the US, although it would be negative for global growth and cooperation, could give advantages to some European countries due to trade diversion,” say Judith Arnal and Federico Steinberg in an article published by the Royal Institute. Elcano.
May Putin win
Trump has boasted that he would end the war in 24 hours, but the big question is how and the fear that the allies have is that he will give in to Vladimir Putin. Former advisers to the populist leader have revealed that his position on Ukraine is far from what Washington or the EU have maintained since the conflict began in 2014.
“Trump made it very clear that he thought Ukraine, and certainly Crimea, should be part of Russia,” said Fiona Hill, former director for European and Russian affairs at the White House between 2017 and 2019, according to a book by The journalist. New York Times David Sanger.
That is the worst scenario for the end of the war that the European allies could imagine, who have always defended that the bases for peace negotiations would have to be established by Ukraine, as an attacked country, and that it should come to that table with strength in the battlefield. Hence, enormous military aid has been provided.
“The biggest danger of another Trump presidency is letting Russian President Vladimir Putin do whatever he wants with America’s allies and cutting a deal with him while excluding Ukrainian input with ‘a phone call.’ If this were to happen, not only would Ukraine lose the war and its sovereignty, but the rest of Europe would be left alone in the face of the threat from Russia and the waning world order. Europe’s dubious military capabilities – and lack of will to improve and use them – combined with a neo-isolationist and detached United States, will not be able to deter Russia from further aggression, since war is the only way for the criminal Russian regime to survive. , Patrycja Sasnal, research director at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, recently warned.
Uncertainty takes over partners
If Trump is characterized by something, it is the lack of predictability and uncertainty is not a good ally. In his previous mandate, multilateral agreements were blown up. One of the most bloody was the exit from the Paris Agreements to try to reduce the damage of climate change. One of Biden’s first decisions was to recover that pact.
“The US election result is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven resilient and stronger than any country’s policies. The current context is very different from that of 2016. There is a powerful economic impulse behind the global transition, which the United States has led and benefited from, but which now risks losing. The devastating toll of recent hurricanes was a grim reminder that all Americans are affected by worsening climate change,” said Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation.
A risk for democracy
Trump also represents the antithesis of many European values. Its inflamed rhetoric and politics based on exaggeration, if not manipulation and hoaxes, is a breeding ground for the extreme right.
“European leaders are concerned about a continued and possibly irreversible decline in democratic norms if Trump returns to the presidency. Europeans are concerned not only about American domestic politics – the danger of authoritarianism spreading in the United States – but also about the impact on the international order, which they believe could suffer an even more serious setback with a second term of Trump. “Many are concerned that a Trump return could embolden other populist-nationalist leaders in Europe and beyond, as was seen during his mandate,” Laura von Daniels, head of the South American research division, warned before the election. German Institute for Security Affairs.
The forces of that political spectrum rejoice at the victory of what is one of their great world leaders. “A much-needed victory for the world!” celebrated the Hungarian far-right Orbán while there are voices that directly warn of the risk for democracies. Far-right leaders, such as the Italian Giorgia Meloni, will also try to get closer to Trump and try to take advantage of their good relationship. And the division within the EU is another weak point. “The current situation in European politics shows internal divisions and nationalist narratives in several Member States. “Trump could play the divide and conquer strategy with the European Union and undermine its unity,” says the think tank Strategic Perspective.
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