Following Poland and Slovakia, Hungary joined the blockade of the checkpoint on the border with Ukraine: since December 11, truckers from this country have closed the Zahony-Chop checkpoint. And although, apparently, Kiev managed to agree with Warsaw on a partial unblocking of the border, the protests have already led to the loss of €400 million by the Ukrainian economy. These actions themselves may become evidence of Kiev’s more serious problems: Hungary and Slovakia oppose the start of accession negotiations Ukraine in the EU, the media are already discussing the possibility of postponing the start of membership discussions at least until the spring of 2024. How Ukraine solves problems on the western border – in the material of Izvestia.
The blockade of Ukraine is expanding
A little more than a month after the start of blocking by Polish cargo carriers of the checkpoint on the border with Ukraine, on December 11, their colleagues from Hungary joined the protests of truckers from Poland and Slovakia. Demonstrations take place at the Zahony-Chop checkpoint.
“We asked the EU <...> to review its agreement signed with Ukraine and take into account the interests of carriers of EU member countries, including Hungary,” Reuters quotes Tivadar Arvay, Secretary General of the Association of Hungarian Road Carriers.
Local police said permission had previously been issued for the protest and about a dozen trucks would block the main road leading to the Zahony checkpoint. At the moment, it is unknown how long the actions of Hungarian truckers may last, but local media write that the road will be “partially blocked” at least until the end of December.
In general, the situation on the Ukrainian border has been quite tense for quite some time. Cargo carriers in Poland began blocking their checkpoints on the border with Ukraine on November 6. Later they were joined by colleagues from Slovakia.
Recently, the traffic of Ukrainian trucks through Hungary has increased by 30%, while Hungarian freight traffic itself has fallen by 4%, reports MTI.
The demands of truckers from all three countries are the same: to revise the EU agreement with Kiev (calculated until mid-2024) in the part that, in fact, provided Ukrainian cargo carriers with visa-free travel in Europe. That is, cargo carriers are demanding the return of the permit system for Ukrainians, as well as toughening the conditions for entry into the EU and a number of others for them.
Consequences for Kyiv
Due to protests in Eastern European countries, the Ukrainian economy is already €400 million short, said Vladimir Balin, a member of the Association of International Road Carriers of Ukraine, at the end of November.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that in the current conditions there are practically no export routes left for Ukraine. Kyiv began to reduce economic interaction with Moscow and Minsk even before Russia launched a special military operation, and after February 2022, virtually all ties came to naught. At the same time, relations with its western neighbors – Poland, Slovakia and Hungary – are not developing in the most favorable way for Kyiv. At first, these states blocked the import of Ukrainian agricultural products, now protests from cargo carriers have been added to these measures.
Thus, Ukraine has two export routes left – through Moldova and Romania, and also by sea. The latter route, however, is very difficult: after Moscow suspended its participation in the grain deal, Russia does not guarantee the safety of navigation in the waters adjacent to the special operation zone in southern Ukraine.
At the same time, the sea route is generally viable: after Russia revoked its guarantees, foreign ships began to arrive at Ukrainian ports. After passing through the Turkish straits, ships heading to Ukraine can reach their destination ports through the internal waters of Bulgaria and Romania. However, perhaps fearing incidents, many ship-owning companies avoid this route.
But exports are not that important for Kyiv, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. “If exports were so important for Ukraine, this problem would, if not be solved, then be discussed much more often at a high level,” says Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian-Political Studies.
In addition, it should be taken into account that after the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022, a lot of citizens left Ukraine. At the moment, according to some estimates, about or slightly more than 20 million people remain in the country, which, of course, affected the structure of all supplies. “Ukraine’s exports and imports have both fallen. The economy looks in the worst possible way. Ukraine can provide itself only with agricultural products,” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, tells Izvestia.
On the other hand, the expert continues, the European Union, in the context of general dissatisfaction with the dumping of food prices caused by the overstocking of local markets with Ukrainian food, even benefits from the fact that some of the goods get stuck at the borders, because “the Europeans do not need price dumping from Kyiv.” .
At the same time, in the current situation, it is not profitable for the European Union to isolate Ukraine, since this will raise questions about the support of the Kyiv regime from the West.
“Europe is not interested in completely isolating Ukraine, so Brussels will constantly try to influence Hungary, Poland and Slovakia so that the vehicle entry regime is changed for the better in exchange for something,” says Vladimir Bruter.
Indeed, in this whole story, an important role is played by the element of bargaining that Eastern European countries conduct with the center for the sake of greater preferences for their population. This is especially true for Slovakia and Poland, where freight remains a significant part of the economy.
And if there is nothing new in Hungary’s actions—Budapest does not hide its strained relations with Kiev—then the actions of the Polish truckers were a serious blow to the Ukrainian-Polish cooperation that developed as part of the confrontation with Russia. However, in Poland and in Slovakia, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky believes that politicians are using protests for their electoral purposes. In these countries, protecting local workers from unfair competition from Ukraine has become an element of the election campaign. And now the role of populism is expected to gradually decline. Apparently, the problem, at least on the Polish side, will now have to be solved by Donald Tusk, who, as experts expect, will soon take over the post of Prime Minister of Poland.
Not everyone in the EU is happy about Ukraine
Although the protests on the border do not in themselves create a critical situation in the Ukrainian economy, the actions themselves have become evidence that not all supporters of Kyiv are ready to support it to the detriment of their own national interests. In addition, today it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to receive financial and other material assistance from the United States and the EU.
On December 7, Republicans in the US Senate blocked consideration of a bill that would provide assistance to Ukraine and Israel. Kyiv could, according to this document, count on $61.4 billion in 2024. In Europe, they are in no hurry to make up for the lost funding from the United States. At least, except for Germany, no one has openly announced the decision to double support for Kyiv – to €8 billion.
In this context, the expansion of trucker protests in Eastern Europe can be seen as an additional example of the change in sentiment among the allies compared to the attention Kyiv received during the first months of the conflict.
With this in mind, he approaches the EU summit, at which, as expected, negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the community can be launched (previously, such a recommendation was issued by the European Commission). However, not everyone is ready to even discuss such a prospect.
Thus, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already called for this issue not to be included on the agenda of the Eurosummit. “Firstly, because they (Ukraine – Izvestia) are not ready for negotiations. Secondly, because we Europeans are not ready to accept them,” Orban said last week.
On December 11, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó spoke even more harshly about the European Commission’s plans to include Ukraine in the EU. “The current EC plan is not thought out and prepared. It would be completely irresponsible for the EU to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU,” said the Hungarian diplomat.
Reuters writes that due to Budapest’s position, negotiations on Kyiv’s membership could begin in March next year.
Moreover, while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is trying to seize on any opportunity to return the confrontation with Russia to the front pages of the world's newspapers, Orban's supporters in Washington are holding a closed two-day meeting (December 11-12), during which the issue of cutting off funding to Ukraine will be discussed together with Republicans , writes the British The Guardian.
By the way, in Slovakia, the Social Democracy Course (SMER) party came to power in the fall under the leadership of Robert Fico, who earned a reputation as a pro-Russian politician for his consistent criticism of Kyiv. He opposes arms sales and calls Ukraine “the most corrupt country in the world.” The position of the current authorities in Slovakia is that Ukraine itself is not ready to start negotiations.
— If Ukraine wants to become a member of the European Union, it needs to take many more steps and go a very long way. The time when countries could join the EU purely by political decision is long gone. Now Ukraine also needs to meet all the criteria, as was the case, for example, in the case of Slovakia,” Marian Carey, chairman of the foreign relations commission of the National Council of Slovakia, told Izvestia earlier.
Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to try to agree on the passage of trucks through the checkpoint: the TSN television channel, citing sources, stated that Kyiv and Warsaw have agreed to unblock the border. According to these data, the points “Yagodin” and “Rava Russkaya” should be opened sequentially. In the meantime, some trucks are transported across the border by rail, which increases delivery costs.
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