The Euribor, index to which most of the mortgages are referenced at variable type, brand This Thursday, March 20, 2025, a daily data of 2,379%, a drop of 0.027 basic points with respect to the previous day. However, the month of March could be a turning point, since the provisional average with this last daily data remains at 2,425%, that is, 0.018 basic points above the closure of February. In fact, future forecasts also stop the bearish streak of the mortgage index, although this does not mean that the mortgages will see the fees to be paid in the coming months go up.
In fact and for the moment, the mortgage quotas will not be affected upwards, although this March began with four strong consecutive increases in the daily data and the provisional average already predicts a closure above the final average of the month of February, Despite the four consecutive days of very light falls.
Why are Euribor drops stop?
This March has been marked by the European Central Bank meeting (ECB), which Interest rates at 25 basic points have fallen again For fifth consecutive conclave up to 2.5% in the deposit rate, accumulating a total of 150 basic flexibility points since June 2024.
However, in a short time, the ECB panorama has changed. Future expectations already contemplate that the descent of the types are stopped, which go hand in hand with the mortgage index, whose futures also They mark figures above 2% by the end of the year.
The reason for this change of panorama? On the one hand, The shocks that Trump is putting to financial markets. The bearish pressure with which the mortgage index is fading due to repeated threats of US tariffs. The obstacles that Trump is trying to trade results in more inflation, extreme that central banks are beginning to contemplate. The ECB already warned two weeks ago that the end of the descent was approaching the end. At the same time, today it is the turn of the Fed.
On the other hand, Euribor lives in the shadow of the official types of the ECB and will not go far. For months I did not quote so close to the deposit rate, which is currently in 2.5%indicating that the expectations to continue going down are deflating. Tariffs bring a dangerous inflation component for central banks. But, in addition, the bellicose context has led European countries to announce a strong increase in spending, which will lead to greater indebtedness. And this perspective does not help the Euribor to continue going down.
In this way, at a higher volume of debt in the market, more interest up and most cost the EUs to keep the types at bay, which can cause your monetary policy to turn. The Euribor is no stranger to this perspective. If the market requires more profitability to European debt, sooner or later it will move to mortgages.
What will happen to mortgages?
The monthly Euribor data directly affects the mortgage reviews, since the banks recalculate the variable mortgages with the monthly average, uploading or lowering compared with the data of six or twelve months ago.
Those who have a mortgage review in March will see the amount of their quotas.
Thus, the first fact that must be taken into account is that of the monthly closure of twelve month ago, precisely in March 2024, when the Euribor had just left a resounding bullish streak. Specifically, the Euribor closed that month at 3,718%, a figure that is 1.29 basic points above the current Monthly average of March 2025 (2,428%). Thus, those who have a mortgage review in March will see the amount of their quotas.
To see it with an example, for a mortgage of 140,000 euros to 30 years (360 months), with a 1% differential and taking as reference the month of March of the year 2024, when the Euribor closed to 3,718%, The monthly fee was 727.61 euros.
Now, with the provisional average of March 2025, which is located at 2,397%, the mortgage quota of the owners who have review in February will fall to the 623.05 euroswhich means that They will pay 104.56 euros less than a year ago.
How is Euribor calculated?
The Euribor responds to the name European Interbank offered rate and is calculated through a panel of European banks that report every day to which rate interbank loans are made. As of 2020, the calculations are made hybridly. Panel data is included, but also the estimates of the market itself, with the aim of reducing volatility and the risk of manipulation, to which these indices were submitted at the beginning of the century.
The panel consists of 18 European banksamong which are Santander, BBVA, Barclays, Deutsche Bank or Unicredit.
Every working day at eleven o’clock in the morning, the average interest rate is published in which the financial institutions lend capital to One week, one month, three months, six months and 12 months.
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