In the average of in-person polls carried out in São Paulo, former mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) has 35% of the voting intentions and is followed by Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB), with 23% and 16%, respectively.
The PT’s advantage over the former Minister of Infrastructure in the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL) fell from 17 to 12 percentage points in one month.
The numbers are from the Electoral Research Aggregator of Estadão Dados, an interactive online application that seeks to show the most likely scenario of disputes for the government of São Paulo and the Presidency of the Republic.
In the case of the state government, the historical series of the aggregator has data published by the following companies: Datafolha, Ipec, Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas and Badra. All of them carry out face-to-face surveys, that is, the interviewers are face-to-face with voters when collecting their voting intentions.
Telephone surveys on this year’s state contest are not considered, as they occur in insufficient numbers for the aggregator model to calculate their influence.
The national aggregator considers both face-to-face and telephone surveys, and presents its results separately in graphs that show the evolution of candidates in the last 180 days.
SEPARATION
There is a reason for the separation of in-person and telephone polls: there is evidence that, on average, telephone surveys tend to underestimate the rate of voting intentions for PT candidates.
It is possible that this happens because they find it more difficult to gauge the opinion of the poorest – a segment in which the party usually does better.
The information is from the newspaper. The State of São Paulo.
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