In Finland, a lot depends on whether Olkiluoto 3 can be fully operational by winter.
In summer Europe is already afraid of a historically difficult winter as the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis that started from it only continue. A foretaste of this has already been obtained in Germany, where of the Financial Times among other things, the heating of swimming pools and the use of hot water have been banned.
The flow of Russian energy to Europe has dwindled to a weak stream as a result of both EU sanctions and Russia’s countermeasures. The energy crisis would become even greater if the energy supply is completely cut off for the winter. This could lead to electricity regulation and blackouts across Europe.
“Yes, an exceptional winter seems to be coming. The starting points are truly exceptional”, says the manager responsible for the operation of the grid company Fingrid to STT Tuomas Rauhala.
The effects of the energy crisis extend to all countries in Europe, even though, for example, Finland is not as dependent on Russian natural gas as, for example, Germany and Italy. Through the market, everything affects everything, says the product group manager of the energy supply department of the National Security Agency Juha Vahlsten for STT.
“Yes, that’s exactly how it is, if there is a severe shortage of something, then everyone’s eyes turn to those other raw materials, and everyone’s prices go up.”
Electricity regulation is also possible in Finland in the coming winter. In Finland, Fingrid uses three-step scale when approaching an electricity shortage, and in the third step of the actual electricity shortage, consumption is forcibly reduced with maximum two-hour power cuts.
“You can start from the fact that the disconnection is the last resort, in practice there are measures before that,” says Fingrid’s Rauhala.
According to Vahlsten of the Security of Supply Center, such an electricity shortage in winter is possible, but depends on many factors.
“Regulation is the best way to avoid the collapse of the entire main grid if such a situation is reached, but in my opinion it is still reasonably far away. Several things should go wrong, just one thing won’t go wrong,” says Vahlsten.
One significant factor for electricity supply is the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor. Minister of Economic Affairs Mika Lintilä (center) told this weekthat the reactor would produce electricity at full capacity in September, which would alleviate the electricity shortage significantly in the winter months.
European from the point of view, the situation is considered the worst energy crisis since the oil crisis of the 1970s.
“In the short term, it certainly seems that Europe is in more trouble because of this great dependence that German policy has led to. Many other countries have followed the German way, and now the price is being paid,” says the University of Helsinki professor Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen.
However, according to the researcher, it is clear that in the longer term, Russia will suffer the biggest loss as the world changes around it.
“It is clear that in the longer term, Russia will be the loser. In a world situation where everyone else is trying to break away from fossil fuels, Russia is driving itself after the bag. This is the last upheaval of the fossil world from Russia’s point of view. Russia will be a significantly poorer country in 10, 15 or 20 years.”
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