One year before the elections, União Brasil could take command of both Houses; find out who is on the outside in the race
1 year away from choosing successors for the current presidents of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), the main listed companies are allies of the current representatives. They are the favorites: the federal deputy Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil-BA), close to Lira; and the senator David Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), an ally of Pacheco. But a lot can change by February 2025.
The election must be held on February 3, 2025, a Monday. The selection of new presidents of the two Houses is made at the opening of legislative work, in February. As in 2025 the month will start on a Saturday, the tendency is for the choice to be postponed to the 1st business day.
The term of office for both presidencies lasts 2 years. Lira and Pacheco took up their respective positions in 2021 and were reappointed by congressmen in 2023. Because they were re-elected in the change of legislature, when new deputies and senators take up their mandates, they are prevented from running again.
Chamber: undefined scenario
In the Chamber, the scenario of the dispute is more cloudy.
Federal deputy Elmar Nascimento, leader of União Brasil, is the main bet of the current president, Arthur Lira. He is the target of criticism, especially from government supporters, for allegedly having already started the campaign. They say he missed the start. Added to this is the fact that the Bahian congressman has no affinity with the PTparty of the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He campaigned in the state for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), defeated candidate for president, and ACM Neto (União Brasil), defeated candidate for governor of Bahia.
This Carnival, he took Lira and other fellow congressmen to spend part of the holiday in Salvador.
Other congressmen position themselves as possible candidates, with emphasis on:
Behind the scenes, they already organize their campaigns.
The PL leader, deputy Altineu Cortes (RJ), is also mentioned as a possible candidate. The launch of an opposition name for the party is the will of the bench and the national president of Bolsonaro's party, Valdemar Costa Neto. The party has the largest number of seats in the Lower House, with 95 deputies. It's not enough to elect a president.
Another name is floated quite frequently behind the scenes: Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). He was the tax reform rapporteur and has a reputation for being kind to his peers and articulate in resolving problems. He has a good relationship with the federal government. It may emerge as a consensus name, if none of the previous ones manage to become viable.
Senate: the return of those who were not there
In the Senate, the favorite for 1 year of the election is Senator Davi Alcolumbre, who presided over the House from 2019 to 2021 and currently presides over the powerful CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission). The União Brasil congressman was the main organizer of Pacheco's election and now wants to return to command.
Senators Davi Alcolumbre and Rodrigo Pacheco alongside the Senate presidents
The senator Eliziane Gama (PSD-MA) stands as a pre-candidate and representative of the women's bench in the Senate. The congresswoman has influence among senators, but will face internal resistance, as her party must support Alcolumbre.
It is likely that the MDB will come up with a name. It is the party that has presided over the House most times – 17 of the 24 presidents of the Senate since redemocratization have been from the party. Among those mentioned are Renan Calheiros (AL), which may try to support Planalto, and Eduardo Braga (MDB). Calheiros has already commanded the Senate for 3 periods: from 2005 to 2007, when he resigned from his position due to allegations of corruption; from 2013 to 2015 and from 2015 to 2017.
Renan ran in 2019 against Alcolumbre. At the time, after a fierce dispute, which prolonged the dispute for 2 days, he withdrew his candidacy.
Just like the opposition in the Chamber, the political group against the government in the Senate must also have a candidate to establish a position in the dispute. The opposition leader, Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), competed with Pacheco in 2023 and lost. It is mentioned again as an option.
In addition to Marinho, the name of the PP leader in the Senate, Tereza Cristina (PP-MS), Bolsonaro's former Minister of Agriculture, is another opposition option.
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