This Friday, March 10, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey, called for elections on May 14, three months after the earthquake. The leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, was nominated on March 6 to challenge the current president. He now has ten weeks to win over a president weakened by the economic crisis and the earthquakes that occurred a month ago.
The presidential campaign officially opens on Friday March 10 in Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is running for a new term, already knows his main adversary: Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. The 74-year-old former civil servant, often presented as “the antithesis of Erdogan”, was nominated after weeks of negotiations and debates by the “Table of Six”, the alliance of the six main opposition parties.
“Today we are very close to overthrowing the throne of tyrants, believe me,” he declared on Tuesday, the day after his appointment, promising “the beginning of a total change.” As polls predict a close election, the least certain for the outgoing president since he came to power in 2003,
France 24 deciphers what is at stake in the ten weeks remaining before the vote, scheduled for May 14.
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, a “Turkish Gandhi” against Erdogan
“The Table of Six”, which brings together the entire political spectrum, from the left to the right, has had a difficult time choosing its favorites for the presidential elections. The entire weekend before the announcement of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu’s candidacy was marked by tensions and disputes.. The coalition even seemed on the verge of imploding when Meral Aksener, muse of the nationalist right and head of the group’s second movement, threatened to quit.
“In the end, the consensus option prevailed,” explains Aurélien Denizeau, an independent researcher specializing in Turkey. “Kemal Kiliçdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) is the most important movement in the coalition and has embodied the opposition to Erdogan since its creation. Appointing its leader was a logical choice,” agrees Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute for Relations International and Strategic (Iris), specialist in Turkey.
At 74, this former senior official, long the director of the Turkish Social Security, has become one of the main faces of the opposition to the president. Since 2008, he has made headlines several times for revealing corruption cases involving members of the AKP, the presidential party.
In 2017, the man nicknamed “the Turkish Gandhi” for his calmness and resemblance to the historic Indian leader also made a name for himself by walking 450 kilometers from Ankara to Istanbul to denounce “the government’s authoritarianism.” In 2019, it was also his party that managed to win several important cities, including Istanbul, after more than 20 years in the hands of the AKP.
Despite these successes, many within the coalition reproach him for his lack of charisma and would have preferred the candidacy of the mayor of Istanbul or the mayor of Ankara, who rank better than him in the polls. “But what some see as a lack of charisma could ultimately turn out to be to your advantage during the campaign.” says Didier Billion. “Kemal Kiliçdaroglu enjoys an image completely contrary to that of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seen as authoritarian and bellicose. But the population wants this calm.
The Kurds, referees of the election
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu’s nomination could have another advantage: rallying the Kurdish vote towards the “Table of Six”. The candidate, who comes from an Anatolian brotherhood of seven children, is originally from the Kurdish-majority region of Dersim and belongs to the Alevi minority, a heterodox branch of Islam. Thus, he could single-handedly win over the nationalist wing of the alliance, retain his left-wing voters and go for the vote of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
“Around a third of the Kurdish population, a conservative Sunni, traditionally votes for Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” says Aurélien Denizeau. “But the vote of the remaining two-thirds, which mostly align with the HDP, is more uncertain. It is the third party in the Turkish Parliament. About 10% of the vote is attributed to it. It will be the arbiter of these elections“.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan weakened “but still solid”
In front of the “Table of Six”, Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems “more fragile than ever”, but “continues to enjoy a very solid electoral base”, analyzes Aurélien Denizeau. “According to the latest polls, he is still credited with 40% of the vote. This is enough to win the elections, but the result could be very close.”
During the campaign, President Erdogan will also be able to count on a press almost exclusively dedicated to him to try to mobilize the electorate. “At the same time, he will undoubtedly try to play with the divisions of the opposition to discredit it,” anticipates the specialist.
If the outgoing president is weakened by an uneven balance, marked by an economic crisis and a barrage of criticism of his management of the earthquakes on February 6, the opposition is trying to present a common program. “Their common denominator is to end Erdogan, put an end to a presidential regime and return to a parliamentary one,” recalls Didier Billion. “Regarding economic or social issues, they leave it for after the elections, assuring that there will be ‘compromises’.”
“Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also undoubtedly try to improve the country’s economic situation, albeit in a short-term way,” says Aurélien Denizeau. “At the same time, he is betting on his foreign policy, one of the few areas where there is a consensus on his record, particularly as it relates to his management of the war in Ukraine.”
This article has been adapted from its original in French.
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