Caracas, Venezuela.– When three presidents of Latin America’s largest democracies waded into a conflict between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his opponents over who had won the South American nation’s presidential election, it represented an unusual diplomatic gamble.
The presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico — nicknamed “The Three Amigos” and all leftist politicians who have been friendly to Maduro — broke with decades of hands-off diplomacy toward Venezuela and their own reluctance to meddle in the sovereign affairs of a neighboring country in a region where U.S. military interventions during the Cold War continue to breed resentment.
But some experts say the peace effort is losing momentum before it even gets off the ground. They cited distrust of Mexico’s outgoing president, divisions among the Latin American left and pressure from the United States for Maduro to concede defeat and step aside. The main result so far, they say, has been to buy Maduro valuable time to consolidate his rule and jail more opponents since elections held on July 28.
“The mediation effort is cautious, focused on avoiding conflict and a new wave of migration rather than defending democracy,” said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, a Venezuelan-born analyst and founder of Aurora Marco Strategies, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in New York.
“It’s hard to be optimistic,” added Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington. The diplomatic work by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his Colombian counterpart Gustavo Petro to resolve the dispute over the election results was initially heralded by many in the Venezuelan opposition and by the United States, which was happy to leave the political minefield to others. Lula, who sent a close aide to Caracas to oversee the election, refused to acknowledge Maduro’s declaration of victory. Joined by Lopez Obrador and Petro, he also called on Venezuelan authorities to publish the minutes of the election results – as they have traditionally done – to back up their claim that Maduro had won. “If there are doubts … let the votes be counted,” Lopez Obrador said in his first remarks after the election. Opposition politicians have said they have obtained more than 80 percent of the country’s tally sheets showing candidate Edmundo Gonzalez had won by a two-to-one margin, prompting the United States and dozens of other countries to say Gonzalez had gotten the most votes. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have not joined those countries, instead trying to get Maduro to release the breakdown of the results. But as time has passed and as the Venezuelan government’s crackdown on the opposition continues, the trio has lost some of its magic. A long-discussed call between the presidents and Maduro has yet to take place. Recently, Lopez Obrador hinted that he would step back from the effort to await the results of an audit by Venezuela’s Supreme Court, which is packed with Maduro loyalists and has almost never ruled against the government. Lula, meanwhile, has angered many in the opposition by saying he agrees to rerunning the election. “We don’t really know how committed they are to a transition to democracy,” said Javier Corrales, a professor of Latin American politics at Amherst College in Massachusetts. “Maybe in private circles they are pressuring Maduro to step down, but in public statements there is no evidence that this is a priority. They talk mostly about stability and avoiding bloodshed.” The United States has shown itself willing to stand by after the failed attempts by former President Donald Trump’s administration to oust Maduro. Joe Biden, while condemning the apparent electoral fraud, has not retaliated or gone as far as the opposition to recognize Gonzalez as president-elect. Instead, he prefers to give political space to diplomacy, especially since the next presidential term does not begin until January. Behind the scenes, though, he has been sharing his stances with the trio of Latin American countries, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently speaking with his Mexican counterpart, Alicia Bárcena, while Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau chatted with Lula. Unlike Venezuela’s neighbors, the U.S. has a real advantage over Maduro that could make it impossible for him to govern efficiently for the next six years. That includes debilitating oil sanctions that have all but shut the OPEC nation out of Western markets and are contributing to shortages and an ongoing economic crisis. There’s also a $15 million reward for Maduro’s arrest to face drug trafficking charges in the U.S. An exit plan for Maduro will likely involve some amnesty for the president and dozens of others who are accused of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian political consultant, said Lula and his associates have emerged as the “adults in the room” following a series of U.S. policy failures. “Where have the US sanctions taken us?” said Traumann, who previously served as a spokesman for Dilma Rousseff, a member of the Workers’ Party — to which Lula belongs — and president of Brazil from 2011 to 2016. “Over the past 20 years, the US has resorted to sanctions, freezing international reserves, recognizing a puppet president and even supporting a military coup in 2021 — all of which has failed.” But he said it was unrealistic for any foreign country — whether the US or any other — to play more than a supporting role as long as Maduro has the support of the military and powerful allies such as Russia and China. “This plan will probably not succeed, not because Lula and Petro are naive or are not putting enough pressure on Maduro, but because there is little they can do to enforce it,” he said. “Any autocrat can survive international sanctions.”
#Efforts #mediate #conflict #Venezuela #lose #steam
