Editorial|Editorial
Russia’s aim now is to urgently implement plan b in Ukraine, after plan a collapsed. As part of plan b, Russia is trying to confuse minds in the West.
Last days it has been possible to observe how Russia has tried to move the war it has waged in Ukraine to a new position.
First, Russia started rushing to stage “referendums” in the territories it occupied from Ukraine. Right after, President Vladimir Putin announced a motion in Russia, which he called “partial”. At the same time, Putin said that Russia is at war with the West.
The casting of votes and the gathering of men for cannon fodder were still in progress, when on Monday explosions occurred in or near the Nord Stream gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany near the island of Bornholm on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. As a result of the explosions, there are now leaks in the pipes.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday that the explosions were the result of “clearly deliberate actions”. The German magazine Der Spiegel reported The CIA of the United States Central Intelligence Agency warned Germany about possible attacks on the pipelines already weeks ago.
Russia quickly became the main suspect. The explosions fit well into Russia’s hybrid operations playbook. When the news about the explosions on Tuesday spread, nervousness quickly spread as well. However, there remains a small doubt and uncertainty about the perpetrator of the sabotage, which allows him to deny his part until the end. Unless Russia wants to be proud of it.
Situation is now boring and even more dangerous than before for the whole of Europe.
The “referendums” staged by Russia are part of a play in which Russia annexes Ukrainian regions to itself according to the wishes of their inhabitants. Putin is expected to make an announcement on the matter as early as Friday.
After the process, according to the Kremlin, the regions are part of Russia, so when Ukraine takes back its own regions, according to Russia, it attacks Russia. After that, it is possible for Russia to declare war on Ukraine. The biggest fear is related to nuclear weapons, which Putin and other Russian representatives have recently hinted at using to defend their own territories.
The launch is explained by the exhaustion of the current forces of the armed forces, but at the same time, the Russian leadership is signaling to Ukraine and the West that it is ready to throw hundreds of thousands of men against Ukraine, even for a long time if necessary.
On the other hand, there can be several reasons for the sabotage of gas pipelines in Russia. At worst, Russia wants to expand the armed conflict to the Baltic Sea, but more likely the goal is to sow discord in the West, send a message of capability, arouse confusion and fear, force the West into the role of a reactionary again, ignore climate concerns and strengthen the image of Russia’s unpredictability.
Is still, it’s good to remember that we are in the current situation because Putin’s original plan in Ukraine failed. Launching, threatening nuclear weapons and hastily arranged “referendums” are a hasty reaction to Ukraine’s successful counterattack. They are, above all, an attempt by the Russian leadership to stabilize the situation at the front and play for time so that the West would forget about Ukraine. Sabotage is also a sign of weakness.
In the West, there is reason to understand the danger of the situation. Putin still hasn’t realized his original mistake and still seems to believe that Ukraine is not an independent actor. The truth sometimes hurts, and that’s when Putin can be especially dangerous.
At the same time, you have to keep a cool head. The West must clearly show that borders cannot be moved by threatening nuclear weapons. Aid to Ukraine must now be increased quickly.
The editorials are HS’s positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS’s editorial department, and they reflect the journal principle line.
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