The assassination of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, which occurred on August 9, shakes the political scene of Ecuador in the final stretch towards the elections next Sunday, August 20. Experts point out that now, more than at any other time in the campaign, the “strong hand” discourse against organized crime benefits the aspirants to the Executive who promise strong measures to curb insecurity and drug trafficking, entrenched in Ecuadorian territory and that have caused an unprecedented wave of violence.
The assassination in Ecuador against the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio continues to shock the country and now, a few days before the general and early elections, the promises to curb insecurity and violence take center stage.
Although the lack of security was already among the concerns of Ecuadorians, the vertiginous escalation of organized crime places in the center of public attention, more than at any other time, those candidates for the Executive branch with a “strong hand” discourse against rampant violence and drug trafficking networks.
It is precisely the criminal gangs, including ‘Los Lobos’ or ‘Los Choneros’, the ones pointed out by the authorities as the perpetrators behind the events that seem to bring Ecuador to its knees. A nation that in the past enjoyed optimal levels of security, compared to other Latin American countries such as Colombia or Mexico.
Without the complete clarification of the murder of Villacencio, for which six Colombians are detained, the event generates a political earthquake: it supports the candidates who promise to end violence through the force of the State, especially the right-winger Jan Topic. , according to several analysts.
Blow to the image of correismo?
Some experts point out that the attack meant a new blow to the image of ex-president Rafael Correa, whose candidate Luisa González led the polls for voting intentions before the murder of one of his rivals at the polls.
Villavicencio, a former investigative journalist, had aired corruption cases during the term of the progressive leader, between 2007 and 2017, now in exile in Belgium.
On August 9, the center-left candidate was shot dead by gunmen on a Quito street. Never before has organized crime dared to carry out an attack against a politician of this importance, much less in the capital, which is presumed far from the violence of the Pacific coast, the center of operations of the cartels that export cocaine.
Without presenting evidence, followers and part of the close circle of the deceased politician pointed to Correa. During his years as an investigative journalist, Villavicencio was a staunch critic of Correa when he was in power, denouncing various cases of corruption allegedly committed during his administration. For this reason, they point to that political current of being behind his death.
However, and so far, the Ecuadorian Justice does not associate correismo with crime.
Correa himself recognized the negative impact of that “miserable campaign” in view of the August 20 elections for associating it with the assassination.
The law prohibits publishing polls before the elections, but before his death, Villavicencio ranked second in the intention to vote, in a survey by the firm Cedatos, one of the many pollsters in the country.
“Benefited” the candidates with a “strong hand” speech
“The problem of insecurity and organized crime that Ecuador is going through was already the main concern for the majority of the Ecuadorian population, according to surveys,” Paolo Moncagatta, dean of Social Sciences at the private San Francisco de Quito University, told AFP. .
In this sense, “obviously when the candidate who had a more direct speech against (crime) is assassinated, this will strengthen the candidates who have a strong-armed speech,” he adds.
Former Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner, who governed between 2018 and 2020, has been one of them, but especially the right-wing Jan Topic, a successful businessman, former paratrooper and former sniper of the Foreign Legion of the French Army who wants to come to power to wipe out criminal gangs. .
Nicknamed “Rambo”, the candidate of the so-called Alliance for a Country without Fear proposes the construction of more prisons in the style of the Salvadoran ruler Nayib Bukele.
Following a televised debate on Sunday, August 13, the campaign’s only official, pundits, and media gave Topic one of the victors.
“He was the great beneficiary,” says political scientist Santiago Basabe, from the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO) in Quito.
Talking about security is touching the fibers of Ecuadorians. “People are tired of so much violence (…) It is the issue of kidnappings, assassinations, murders, which are crimes that were not common in Ecuador,” says the academic Saudia Levoyer.
Who ordered the murder of Villavicencio?: The mystery continues in Ecuador
Correa, one of those pointed out by the supporters of the assassinated leader, categorically denies any criminal connection and assures that it is a “plot” to subtract votes from González, who before Villavicencio’s death was leading the polls, although without 40% of the vote. the votes to win the Presidency without having to go to the ballot.
In an interview with AFP, González stated that internal polls showed that he lost two percentage points in the intention to vote.
Correa complains. “Normally we were going to win in a single round, but the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio moved the electoral board.”
The former president assures that the accusations against him do not fit in his head. “We are not so stupid (as to order the murder). Who benefits from the death of Fernando Villavicencio? (…) To the right,” he told the Colombian news outlet Noticias Caracol.
“Actually, it has benefited Topic,” he added on his platform X account, known until recently as Twitter.
Analysts agree that the campaign took a turn.
“Obviously there is a percentage of undecided who thought about (voting for) the Citizens’ Revolution,” Correa’s party, but “the death of Villavicencio (…) makes you think twice before” making that vote happen, Basabe concludes.
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