A pig farmer is used to something. The selling prices of pork have fluctuated for decades, says Eric Stiphout (51). Stiphout has a pig farm in Sambeek, about 35 kilometers south of Nijmegen, and with his brother keeps about 360 sows and 3,000 fattening pigs. They took over the company about 25 years ago from their father, who passed away in 2001.
But in the past two years, the selling price of pork has been in free fall: from 1.80 euros per kilo to 1.30 euros. While the price of pig feed rose sharply due to a scarcity of ingredients (a mix of grains, wheat, maize and soya meal), says Stiphout, who is also a board member of the interest group Pig Farming Producers’ Organization. “We have entered a perfect storm.”
Dutch pig farmers booked on average ‘a negative income of approximately 50,000 euros’
Pig farms had a ‘dramatic’ 2021, ABN Amro analysts concluded in a study published on Tuesday. When African swine fever hit Germany, China (responsible for “about half of the total global pig consumption,” according to ABN) abruptly closed its borders to meat from that country. Result: Europe was saddled with far too much pork. European sales prices fell. And – eventually – the Dutch pig farmers also noticed this: they recorded on average “a negative income of approximately 50,000 euros”, the ABN analysts write.
According to the ABN, this contraction is not temporary. The bank estimates that Dutch pig production will fall by 10 to 20 percent over the next eight years.
swine fever
The Netherlands had about 11.4 million pigs last year, according to figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics. And about 8 percent of the market share in the EU of pork production is in the hands of the Netherlands, according to research by Wageningen University.
The fact that China has bought much more pork from Europe in recent years has a clear reason: the country was hit by swine fever in 2018. To combat the animal disease, the country took a rigorous measure: it halved its pig herd. The shortage of meat was reordered in Europe. This was an unexpected windfall for Dutch and other European pig farmers.
While China normally mainly bought pig heads, tails, and legs from Europe – according to Stiphout products that Europeans usually “turn their nose at” -, Chinese also bought other parts of the animal between 2018 and 2020. But because the swine fever in China is now over and production is starting again, the demand for European pork is declining again.
Other source of income
Stiphout supplies pigs, which he keeps in spacious, more sustainable stables, to a slaughterhouse that does business with Albert Heijn. He was therefore able to make good agreements with the company. He does not really suffer from the falling selling price and the rising feed price. He also has another source of income: he also grows potatoes, grain and maize.
But, says Stiphout, he knows colleagues who lost one or two hundred thousand euros in a year. Did fellow pig farmers take a side job to cope with the losses? “You cannot make up for such a loss with taxi rides,” says Stiphout.
The decline in pig production is not solely attributable to China, but is also due to the decline in pig farmers. The Netherlands had about 3,400 pig farms last year, but due to the nitrogen crisis, more farmers are already deciding to stop before their retirement.
The government started a stop scheme for pig farms in 2019. This scheme was initially conceived for pig farmers who caused odor nuisance, but was expanded into a scheme that had to ensure less nitrogen emissions. 280 pig farmers eventually quit. Two-thirds of the estimated nitrogen reduction was not achieved – a setback for the Ministry of Agriculture.
The nitrogen targets have been brought forward in the new coalition agreement. The cabinet wants to halve nitrogen emissions by 2030 compared to 2019. The tightened nitrogen targets of the new cabinet “will seriously affect pig farming”, according to the ABN research.
Also read: Far fewer pig farmers than thought make use of the severance package
Tightened rules
Jan van den Eijnden (61) has been trading pigs for 38 years and has eighty customers from whom he purchases pigs. He sells the animals to two large slaughterhouses. About 10 percent of his customers are considering quitting their business, he says. According to him, the constantly tightened measures for cleaner stables in connection with the nitrogen crisis, declining income and the lack of a successor in the company are the deciding factors. Pig farmers, says Van den Eijnden, are often wrongly seen as ‘the criminals’ of agriculture. “They can never get it right.”
Is there light at the end of the tunnel? According to the ABN research, yes. The sector is now in ‘survival mode’, the ABN analysts write, but there are also opportunities. For example, Dutch pig farms are putting less and less stress on nature, for example through the techniques they purchase for their stables. The ‘CO2‘footprint’ of Dutch pig farmers is ‘among the lowest in the world’, according to ABN. And the welfare of the animals is becoming increasingly important.
Trader Van den Eijnden and pig farmer Stiphout hope that the market will pick up again soon, as in the past. We have to go through this period for a while, says pig trader Van den Eijnden: “Every war has losers.” Does the pig farmer still have a future in the Netherlands? According to Van den Eijnden: “Enough pig farmers here who are very good entrepreneurs.”
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 2, 2022
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