Draghi at the Quirinale, but avoiding early elections
The idea that it is Mario Draghi the next President of the Republic really seems to intrigue international markets, but early elections must be avoided. To say this explicitly is an analysis by the economist Guido Giorgio Bodrato (from Berenberg, the oldest German bank), which highlights three possible scenarios, reported by Reuters. The first is effectively defined “Business as usual” and depicts the path that Draghi himself indicated with some clarity: the Premier moves to the Quirinale, leaving the seat of Palazzo Chigi to a replacement who could be identified among the ministers of his government. According to Bodrato, “Italy could thus enjoy a relatively stable political framework in 2022, at the start of the seven years of Dragons as President of the Republic “.
However, early elections would have other consequences on the economic situation, given that “with the polls that envisage a substantial balance, the political elections which would take place in late spring could open a new period of political uncertainty “. For this reason, a third scenario (“rather unlikely”) is also outlined, in which Parliament does not accept Draghi’s vision of the government that can continue even without him and the new President of the Republic who, in any case, delays it as much as possible. dissolution of the chambers, “Leaving the ferryman in charge”.
Because Draghi is “fit” for the Quirinale
It is certainly not surprising that Draghi always enjoys enormous esteem abroad. The sort of endorsement of Bodrato follows that of Bill Emmott, author of the book “Good Italy, Bad Italy”, as well as former director ofEconomist. The famous 2001 cover dates back to his direction, on which it was claimed that Silvio Berlusconi it were “Unfit” (unsuitable) to lead Italy. On the eve of Draghi’s speech, the British journalist returned to writing aboutEconomist of the head of the Italian government in office, but this time with decidedly different tones: “The best way in which Draghi can render a service to his country is to become President of the Republic“. Calling him a “skilled economist”, Emmott explains that Draghi knows how to use the plan B when needed. If the main road would remain at Palazzo Chigi to complete the action on the Pnrr initiated by his government, “when the perfect result is not obtainable, it is right to resort to the best of the imperfect options.” And, in this specific case, the solution is that Draghi “is elected President of the Republic in January, so that he can oversee things for the next seven years, in the role of Head of State “. But why is there a need for a plan B?
Why Draghi needs to leave the government
According to Emmott, the idea that Draghi remains a Palazzo Chigi until the 2023 elections it is “an illusion”. The remarkable results obtained by his executive are in fact the result of “an armistice” between the various parties that support him and at this point in front of the former President of the ECB there are only two possible ways: “Spend the next six months with your hands on an increasingly wobbly steering wheel, or the next seven years as a pompous policeman who regulates traffic ”. Emmott describes Italy as a country “in stagnation for most of the last 30 years”, until Draghi, as director general of the Treasury, “in 1992 helped the national team to get out of public debt crisis which saw the lira expelled from the then European exchange rate mechanism, which led to decades of fiscal constraints ”. A change of pace that would have been difficult even “with a ten-year mandate and a stable political framework”.
The supervision of the Quirinale on the Pnrr
Draghi’s charisma is referred to as the ideal trait to complete an evolution of the role of President of the Republic, after that already Giorgio Napolitano And Sergio Mattarella they have made a great deal of personal effort to compensate for the uncertainties caused by the fragmentation of the parties. For this reason Emmott, even before Draghi declared his ambitions, hoped for the climb to the Colle, also tracing the route for his ideal successor: a “Photocopy government”, led by one of Draghi’s technical ministers. Most likely an executive, the fourth of the legislature, born under these premises “would be too weak to pass new laws, but could play an important role in terms of public communication and at the same time develop the work necessary to spend well money from the European Union“. And at that point, Emmott concludes, “everything would come back into play with the 2023 elections, under the supervision of President Draghi”.
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