08/28/2024 – 9:52
The dollar is once again trading higher against the real on Wednesday morning, the 28th, for the third consecutive session, despite the fall in Treasury yields. The adjustments in local assets reflect the external appreciation of the US currency against major pairs and several emerging currencies amid an increase in oil losses.
Concerns about demand for the commodity are once again outweighing supply risks, following the shock caused by the interruption of production in Libya. Analysts at FactSet’s BTU Analytics believe that the impact of the Libyan imbroglio on prices will be short-lived, since OPEC+ has enough room to make up for the shortfall in global supply.
US Treasury bonds have fallen further, dragging down European bond yields in a session with a light schedule that keeps the focus on demand at the 5-year T-note auction this afternoon. Also on the market radar are US GDP data on Thursday the 29th, PCE inflation on Friday the 30th, and the US payroll employment report next week.
On the domestic front, attention is on the press conference on the review of government spending, at Caged, and on a speech by the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto (10 am), at the annual Santander conference. The market has been increasing bets on a more aggressive stance by Copom on the Selic rate and is awaiting a definition on the new president of the Central Bank from January 2025.
On Tuesday night, the 27th, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is considering announcing “soon” the name of the successor to the current president of the Central Bank. I spoke with Campos Neto and said that August or September would be a good month for the announcement, the minister said. Also expected are an interview with the Planning Department about the government’s spending cuts and the Caged report, with the result of the creation of formal jobs in July.
Earlier on the agenda, the Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) remained stable in August, at 101.7 points, in the seasonally adjusted series, reported the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). In July, the indicator had reached 101.7 points. With today’s result, the quarterly moving average of the index rose 1.2 points.
At 9:44 am this Wednesday, the spot dollar rose 0.70%, to R$5.5409. The September dollar gained 0.60%, to R$5.5420.
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