06/25/2024 – 9:59
The dollar rose against the real in negotiations this Tuesday, 25th, in line with its gains in global markets, as investors analyzed the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), released earlier, and waited a series of inflation data this week.
At 9:46 am, the spot dollar rose 0.43%, to R$5.4135 on sale. On B3, the first-month dollar futures contract rose 0.32%, R$5.4140 on sale.
This morning, the dollar was regaining its strength after a session marked by widespread losses the day before, which was reflected in its rise in Brazil. The dollar index — which measures the US currency’s performance against a basket of six currencies — rose 0.11% to 105.630.
The advance of the North American currency could also be seen in emerging countries, with emphasis on the 0.39% increase against the Mexican peso and the 0.24% appreciation against the South African rand.
On Monday, the spot dollar ended the day at R$5.3904 on sale, down 0.94%, after reaching its highest closing value in almost two years last Thursday.
Copom Minutes
In the domestic scenario, the market was analyzing the minutes of the Copom meeting last week, when BC members decided to maintain the Selic rate at 10.50% per year, interrupting a cycle of seven consecutive interest cuts.
In the document released this Tuesday, the authorities deepened points raised the previous week, reiterating a cautious stance in the face of an uncertain global environment and a domestic scenario marked by resilient activity, increased inflation projections and unanchored expectations.
The BC’s stance drew criticism from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last week, which, along with market concerns about Brazilian public accounts, boosted the dollar in Brazil.
“Today, the firmest Copom minutes suggest the possibility that we will have downward pressure (for the dollar)”, said Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence analyst at StoneX.
“On the other hand, risk perception has remained high for some time and the Copom statement last week failed to alleviate this situation,” he added.
This week, investors still turn their attention to the release of new inflation data, looking for signs about the process of controlling prices at a global level.
The national market will analyze new IPCA-15 data for June on Wednesday, with analysts consulted by Reuters expecting an increase of 0.45% on a monthly basis, compared to 0.44% in the previous month.
In the external scenario, investors will be paying attention to the release on Friday of May PCE index numbers, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. Analysts project stability, compared to an increase of 0.3% in April.
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