After months with a campaign in free fall, The governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, abandoned the race for the presidential nomination this Sunday Republican, further paving the way for former US President Donald Trump, who seems an unbeatable rival.
With the withdrawal of DeSantis, The only one left facing Trump in the internal race is the former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, whose litmus test, and perhaps last chance, will be this Tuesday, January 23, in the key New Hampshire primaries.
Why did DeSantis resign and what does the primary look like now?
Why did DeSantis resign from the primary?
DeSantis, governor of the so-called 'sunshine state' since 2019 and member of the ultra-conservative wing of the Republicans, He launched his presidential campaign in May of last year when polls placed him as the only one capable of beating Trump. in the primaries.
However, after an erratic campaign and with many difficulties in distinguishing itself from the radicalism of the New York magnate, His chances were rapidly deflating until this Sunday he decided to throw in the towel.
(Also read: Trump sweeps the Iowa caucuses: what explains his victory and what's next in the primaries?)
In the first round of the primaries, the Iowa caucuses on January 15, Trump swept 51% of the votes and DeSantis had to settle for second place (21%), ahead of Haley (19%).
Furthermore, the forecasts for the next matchup in New Hampshire were much worse, with DeSantis far behind in last place, so the candidate had given up campaigning in the state.
“We do not have a clear path to victory. That is why today I am suspending my campaign,” explained the governor from Florida, who admitted that most Republicans want to “give Donald Trump a second chance.”
DeSantis has made his state the front line in the battle for the soul of the United States, presenting himself as a version of Trumpism without the chaos that accompanies the former president.
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But even though he maintained second place in the polls for several months, Trump remained a favorite among Republican bases who saw no reason to support a “light” version of the former president of the MAGA movement (“Make America Great Again” when they could have the real one.
DeSantis sought to confront “woke” (progressive) politicians, companies and professors with staunchly liberal views whom he accused of imposing their ideology on Americans. His most impactful initiatives included the expansion of gun rights, the imposition of restrictive abortion laws and ban discussions about gender identity and sexuality from classrooms. His educational policies led to dozens of books being removed from school libraries.
But for a time, outrage over his measures was also accompanied by applause in the most conservative circles in the United States, and press coverage gave him national exposure.. However, it was not the same as competing politically on a national stage.
The “cultural war” that DeSantis raised in Florida against the 'woke' ideology (progressivism) or his opposition to the closure of businesses during the covid-19 pandemic or his anti-immigration speech was of no use, given that Trump remained the 'de facto' leader of the party.
DeSantis also often appeared uncomfortable at campaign events and in debates, weighed down by his apparent aversion to the social aspects of a presidential race. His extensive campaign spending and habit of relying on a tight circle of advisors led by his wife, Casey DeSantis, also wrecked his candidacy.
The governor also failed to capitalize on doubts about Trump's eligibility after his indictment for a serious financial crime, a declaration of civil liability in a sexual assault case and criminal investigations into alleged election interference and mismanagement of government documents.
DeSantis made missteps that raised red flags about his own preparation for the highest office in the land. A bitter and avoidable dispute with Disney, Florida's largest private company, over its policies unnerved free-market advocates, while the six-week abortion ban worried other quarters about its lack of connection to public opinion.
Observers in Washington already considered him lost even before the Iowa caucuses last week, in which he fell far behind Trump.
And although days ago the governor criticized the personalistic leadership of Trump, whose ring you have to “kiss” to receive his favors, this Sunday he gave him his public support in the primaries.
With this he wants to prevent “the old Republican guard” from taking over the party again, which, in his opinion, represents Haley's moderate candidacy.
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How does the Republican race look after DeSantis leaves?
At a rally in Rochester (New Hampshire) hours after DeSantis' departure was announced, Trump thanked the governor for dropping out of the race and said he looks forward to working alongside him.
“I hope to work alongside Ron to defeat corrupt Joe Biden; we have to recover our country,” said the former president and also recalled that he will stop using the nickname “DeSanctimonious” (prudish), with which until now he mocked DeSantis.
In addition, he said of the governor of Florida that “he is an incredible person and led a very good campaign.”
Nikki Haley, for her part, wished him “the best” and emerged as the only rival to Trump left standing: “There are only one man and one woman left,” he declared from New Hampshire.
DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former governors Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie have already fallen along the way; and former Vice President Mike Pence, among others.
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According to a CNN analysis, “Support for DeSantis had waned to the point where his departure is not likely to significantly change the balance between Trump and Haley,” so the real impact of his departure will have more to do with his decision. to support the former president ahead of the 2024 presidential elections.
However, unlike DeSantis, Haley has thrown herself into the New Hampshire campaign, hoping that her moderate profile and the support she has received from the state governor, Chris Sununu, will allow her to stand against him. face to Trump.
With DeSantis out of the picture, Haley seeks support from New Hampshire's high proportion of independents – who are allowed to vote in either party's primaries and typically opt for more moderate candidates – to mount what some analysts have described as their “last stand.”
(In other news: Why is Biden losing support among Latinos, African Americans and young people for the 2024 presidential election?)
But it won't be easy at all. A poll published this Sunday by CNN before the governor's withdrawal gave 50% of the votes to Trump, 39% to Haley and 6% to DeSantis. Besides, He is 15 points behind Trump in the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight polls, and is in apparent stagnation.
Added to this is that, according to analysts, DeSantis voters have Trump as their second choice, So the withdrawal of the Florida president predicts even better results than expected for the former president.
Thus, except for a defeat in New Hapshire, or a close second place for its only rival, The schedule for Trump's nomination as President Joe Biden's rival in November could accelerate.
New Hampshire is a small prize in a long race, allocating only 22 of the 2,429 delegates who will make the nomination at the Republican convention in Milwaukee in July. But it is a more reliable indicator of electoral success at the national level than the most conservative states, and is considered to set the tone for upcoming primaries.
The vote on the so-called “Super Tuesday” on March 5, with 874 delegates on the table, will be decisive, as it can make a candidate reach three-quarters of the total required for nomination. Trump's advisers are betting on being in a position to end the race a week after Super Tuesday and want it to end in April, almost certainly before he begins any of his criminal trials.
(Read on: Joe Biden suggests he wouldn't seek re-election if Trump hadn't run)
On the contrary, If Haley obtains outstanding results this Tuesday, she could become a genuine threat to the former president in his home state. South Carolina, at the end of February.
Anticipating that the battle in New Hampshire was going to be a duel of two, the crossfire between Trump and Haley intensified in recent days.
The former ambassador questioned whether the former president is “mentally fit” to return to power, after Trump several times confused Nikki Haley with former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi at a rally.
Trump, for his part, has mocked Haley's Indian roots and dismissed her as his vice president. in case of returning to the White House.
The presidential elections will be held on November 5, when the Republican candidate will face the current president, Joe Biden, who is seeking re-election for a second term.
*With EFE AND AFP
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