Russian army and Wagner mercenaries suffer heavy losses in Bakhmut. That’s exactly what Ukrainian defenders are after, according to a military expert. Is there a real trick behind it?
Munich/Bahmut – Anyone who was wondering how high the Ukrainian death toll was in the dramatically fought-over town of Bakhmut in the Donbass received a tip on Friday (March 10) at the “Maidan” in the middle of Kiev.
Ukraine War: High casualties on both sides in Bakhmut (Donbass)
The mourning ceremony for Oleg Khomiuk (52 years old) and his son Mykyta Khomiuk (25) as well as for the “Hero of Ukraine” Dmytro Kotsiubailo (27), nicknamed “Da Vinci” took place on the prestigious “Independence Square”. All three fell recently at or in Bachmut. Thousands of compatriots said goodbye in the capital.
The Russian losses, however, are said to be disproportionately higher. What’s more: According to a military expert, Moscow ruler Vladimir Putin and the head of the mercenary group “Wagner”, Yevgeny Prigozhin, even fell for a “trick” by the Ukrainian defenders in the Ukraine war just in Bakhmut.
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“While the Russian armed forces are extremely stupid, the Ukrainians are extremely clever. The battles for Bakhmut bind a large number of Russian forces. Soldiers, who in turn are missing elsewhere. In this way, Ukraine can conserve its reserves – and build up forces for offensives in the spring. The more Zelenskyj (President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, d. editor.) also emphasizes the ‘importance’ of Bakhmut, the more urgently Prigozhin wants to conquer it. Russia falls for a trick,” said Marcus Keupp, lecturer in military economics at the Military Academy of ETH Zurich, the news portal t-online.
Bakhmut in Donbass: a trap for the Russian attackers?
In his view, there are also military traps for the attackers. Larger tanks would quickly get stuck in the streets, said the business economist as an example, “and soon fall victim to the defenders. There are also smaller tanks that are more suitable for fighting in urban areas. But the Russian army simply doesn’t have them.” Bakhmut is also suitable for Ukraine for another reason, he explained: “The city lies on a plain, on the surrounding hills there are Ukrainian artillery.”
The Russian troops are bleeding to death there, there is no other way to put it. They are simply cannon fodder.
His thesis: “The Russian troops are sent into a meat grinder – without any consideration. From a military point of view, this is extremely stupid. But the battle for Bakhmut is not primarily about achieving military goals, but about a power struggle in the Russian leadership.” This power struggle is said to be raging between “Wagner” boss Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Both are “enemies,” said Keupp: “But Prigozhin doesn’t really care about the fate of his people either. These people are considered ‘superfluous’, cynical as that is.”
The assessment that the Ukrainian army does not (yet) want to give up Bakhmut in order to concentrate the Russian forces there and create time for a counter-offensive is widespread. Little by little, the impression is emerging that Putin’s spring offensive in Russia has already stalled.
Bakhmut: Ukrainian army holds Donbass frontline town against Russian attacks
The American New York Times recently reported, citing Ukrainian commanders, that they wanted to hold the positions as long as possible until the enemy was weakened and entered the coming battles. “The task of our troops in Bakhmut is to inflict as many casualties as possible on the enemy,” Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian National Guard Volodymyr Nazarenko told NV Radio: “Every meter of Ukrainian land costs the enemy hundreds of lives.”
According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, Russian troops are losing up to 500 men to death or wounds every day near Bakhmut. The Ukrainians had already used the same strategy in the summer of 2022 in the battles for Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk, writes the New York Times in an analysis.
Kyiv calculates according to the New York Times with the fact that if Bakhmut falls, the fighting will shift to the nearest town of Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian armed forces are already setting up and expanding positions there. The General Staff hopes that the Russian units, like last summer, are so weak that there is the possibility of a counter-offensive in the Donbass, where Kupyansk is currently being evacuated.
Bachmut: Russian attack deadlocked – tough resistance from Ukrainian defenders
Because: The Russian troops would literally “bleed to death” in Bachmut, said military expert Keupp, “there is no other way to put it. They are simply cannon fodder: up to 600 men lost a day is a frightening number”. He even estimated the casualties of the invading Russian troops there at six times that of the Ukrainian defenders. The question remains whether the commanders in the Kremlin care. (pm)
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