In March 2022 a climb of the diesel prices which exceeded the petrol tariffs at refueling stations, an unusual situation for those used to seeing diesel always costing less than green. Almost a year later, diesel almost equals that of petrol with a trend that could restore tariff balances in favor of the former. An almost unusual situation to which we are no longer used to and on which we shouldn’t rely too much given that in the long run the price of diesel could still go back above that of green. But what are the reasons that are leading to this fluctuation in fuel costs?
The main reason is the war in Ukraine, with the conflict that has brought diesel and refined products from Russia to be at risk given the policies of embargo and sanctions imposed on the Kremlin. However, the conflict is still ongoing and since 5 February Russian diesel has been excluded from imports into Italy and Europe: in the Old Continent, however, everyone has run for cover, with stocks that have been filled to anticipate any problems that could arise with the stop of the Russian diesel. With full reserves therefore at the European level, prices have leveled out, in addition to the fact that Russia has had to turn to other markets to sell its refined products at a lower cost, with countries such as China and India which have thus been able to become suppliers of ‘Europe at lower rates than Russia.
To this are added other variables: such as, for example the reduction of consumption of diesel for heating, thanks to a less severe winter than expected (at least for now) but also a lower use of diesel in heavy transport due to a drop in demand for some goods. According to today’s surveys by Quotidiano Energia, the price of self-service petrol fluctuates between 1.860 and 1.875 euro/litre, while diesel has an average of 1.869 euro/litre, with rates ranging from 1.860 and 1.881 euro/litre. As highlighted by Reuters’ analyzes on diesel price trends, the current balance could still vary in the medium to long term, with diesel prices therefore likely to increase again in the future.
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