Every war implies demographic devastation, but in the case of Ukraine, there may be no return. Even before the invasion, the country was already dealing with a low fertility rate: 1.2 births per woman.
Last year it dropped to 0.9. And estimates for this year are less optimistic: it is expected to fall to 0.7, according to a report from IDSS, the Ukrainian Institute of Demography and Social Studies.
Exodus of refugees
Added to this bleak picture are worrying data on migration. Because, even though in the former Soviet republic political problems (corruption, lack or poor functioning of public services) and economic problems (unemployment, low wages) had already led the population to cross borders in search of luck in neighboring countries, the armed conflict with Russia resulted in 6.3 million refugees, according to UNHCR.
More than half of them are women — it is estimated — and a third are minors. Men have more difficulties, as adults under 65, except those with three or more children, are at the front or mobilized, and are absolutely prohibited from leaving the country. This, as a consequence, destabilized the gender composition: Ukraine went from being a predominantly female country (there were 86 men for every 100 women) to one where the proportion was reversed, now being 110 to 100.
Under these circumstances, the nation desired by Russia was decimated from a demographic point of view: if after independence, in 1991, it had 52 million inhabitants, at the beginning of the invasion there were 44 left, and today, in the midst of the conflict, 34 million were counted ( 32 if we discount the territories occupied by the Russians). The future also does not look promising, as if the bleeding — and the war — continues, it is estimated that by 2033 there will be between 26 and 33 million, around 40% less since Kiev separated from the USSR.
A shorter life expectancy
One study from WIIW (Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche), an economic research institute based in Vienna, published a few months ago, identified the five problems facing the country that have the greatest impact on its demographic situation. These are weaknesses that, however, do not have their origin in war; they begin in earlier times and can be considered endemic, although the Russian invasion undoubtedly worsened them.
In addition to the low birth rate and waves of migration, experts refer, thirdly, to the low life expectancy: men live on average until 57.3 years old (previously, until 66.4); women, in turn, until 70.9 (a few years ago, life expectancy was 76.4). To the losses in the war of soldiers — according to Ukrainian authorities300,000 have fallen since the beginning of the Russian invasion — and of civilians, for whom there are no official data, those caused by the deprivation and illnesses caused by the siege are added.
The departure of women and children from the country had repercussions not only on the size of the population, but also on its aging, which is the fourth of the demographic dilemmas. Finally, the report refers to the precarious job market, which encourages migration and negatively affects the living conditions of those who remain in the country.
Who will return?
As the war drags on, reconstruction and a return to normality become extremely difficult. It is true that part of the more than six million who left the territory returned: 18%. Surveys also report that 62% of refugees would have no objection to returning if the war ends or their safety is not compromised. Only 20% resist returning.
However, these percentages only express wishes. It must be taken into account that many families are rebuilding their lives, raising their children and taking advantage of new opportunities elsewhere. Furthermore, the difficulties that those who remain will face when the conflict ends may force them to seek luck in neighboring countries. Not to mention what could happen if Russia emerges victorious.
Marina Tvedorstup, one of the analysts who works at WIIW and specializes in Eastern Europe, worries that fighting casualties, the exodus of families and aging will leave the country without labor when it needs it most: exactly when the economy will need to be rebuilt and the energy, preparation and encouragement of young people will be needed to ensure a prosperous future for Ukraine.
©2023 Aceprensa. Published with permission. Original in Spanish: The demographic ruin threatens the future of Ukraine
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