After Barack Obama’s decisive victory in 2008, Democratic Party strategists became convinced that their party’s future dominance was assured, because “demographics are destiny.” Obama performed well among many groups, but his decisive performance among young voters, black voters, Latinos, Asian Americans, and college-educated women captured the attention of strategists. As the share of these groups of voters increased, strategists believed that focusing on the issues most attractive to this “Obama coalition” would ensure future victory.
In subsequent years, they raised issues and conducted extensive voter education to grow this coalition and keep it united. In the process, they appeared to be abandoning outreach to other constituencies, especially working-class white voters, leaving the field wide open for their Republican opponents. In 2008-2009, Republicans, shifting from their responsibility for the Great Recession, exploited feelings of uneasiness and abandonment among white voters. By exploiting resentment and fear, the GOP has weaponized racism and xenophobia in the “birther movement” (“Obama is not one of us”) and the Tea Party (“Democrats’ ideas about government work for them, not for you”).
In the next three elections, the “Democrats”, who relied on mobilizing their “Obama coalition” base, lost more than 1,400 seats at the federal and state levels, which gave the “Republicans” control of both chambers of Congress, and a majority of governorships and state councils. Legislative states. It is unfortunate that the Democrats did not learn from these losses.
After the 2014 midterm elections, the Democratic Party’s pollster gave an upbeat presentation despite a staggering number of defeats nationwide. He announced some good news from 2014: Democrats kept their coalition together, winning votes from young people, blacks, Latinos, Asians, and educated women, but we didn’t win enough of them. The party recommended allocating more resources to encourage these voters to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections. I objected, saying that he was ignoring working-class white voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, who had always been “Democrats,” and whose rights, well-being, and futures had been damaged by “Republicans.”
We had to take care of their needs. His astonishing response was: “We will not waste our money on people who will never vote for us.” I answered that it is not “either/or.” We can be attentive to the concerns of our new coalition, while also being mindful of the needs of our old coalition partners. While rejecting the “both/and” approach, I responded that we would never become a majority party, and that we were presenting these voters to the “Republicans” on a silver platter. Donald Trump came into the picture in 2016. As a candidate, Joe Biden understood the “both” approach and made efforts to win back those voters, but the party apparatus and paid consultants did not follow suit, devoting little or no resources to outreach. with white working-class voters, and even less to understand their values and needs. In 2001, my brother John and I published the book What Ethnic Americans Really Think, based on surveys we conducted of these communities.
White racial voters had largely progressive attitudes toward government and economic policy, but had more nuanced feelings about social issues. Their priorities were to support federal funding for education, health care, and job creation. They were supportive of the Union and racial equality.
Although the interests of working-class white voters are more aligned with Democrats’ economic and governmental policies, Democrats have fallen into the Republican trap – focusing on combating bigoted and intolerant Republican messages, and ignoring white voters’ economic concerns and feelings of abandonment. , instead of paying attention to both. Now, opinion polls show that the Democrats are also at risk of losing elements of the Obama coalition.
By viewing black, Latino, and Asian American voters as a single bloc, Democrats ignore their problems. Over 15% of black voters are African immigrants, and many Latina voters are also recent immigrants. The Democrats’ attitudes and values align more closely with the ethnic European immigrants who came in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. “Democratic” strategists need to adapt to these voting blocs formed by immigrants rather than risk losing their support.
There is another thought: My generation grew up strongly attached to partisan identity, when you “belong” to political parties. Today, being a “Democrat” or a “Republican” means being on an email list or a phone banking list, only listening to your party for fundraising or for the right to vote. Party identification has suffered—particularly among young voters and recent immigrants—and the numbers of independents and swing voters have increased. This is why Donald Trump easily ousted the leadership of the Republican Party, and it is also why the Democrats may have difficulty winning elections because of their slogan: “Demographics are destiny.”
*President of the Arab American Institute – Washington
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