The Democratic primaries in South Carolina began this Saturday with the opening of the voting centers at 7:00 a.m. local time, an appointment to which the American president, Joe Biden, attends with assured victory, but the challenge of proving that he still can mobilize the party base.
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This is the first time that Biden has personally faced the polls since the 2020 elections. The appointment has generated special attention due to its potential to gauge the level of enthusiasm for the ruler, whose approval ratings stand at 39.8 percent, the lowest for a president in the third year of his mandate since Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), according to the Gallup polling company.
South Carolina is especially relevant to measure the support of the African American community for Biden, since it is estimated that 60 percent of Democratic voters in this state belong to that minority.
Participation, a key element According to Professor Todd Shaw of the University of South Carolina, one of the key factors in evaluating support for Biden will be the levels of voter participation, especially among the African-American community.
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In the 2020 primaries, 538,263 voters went to the polls. However, the dynamic was different, since at that time Biden was competing with several Democrats who were seeking the party's nomination and, With more at stake, voters were more motivated to participate.
Although the circumstances are different in these primaries, a low turnout could be interpreted as a bad sign for the Biden campaign, Shaw said.
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In any case, Biden could be declared the winner in South Carolina just minutes after the polling stations close at 7:00 p.m. local time on Sunday, given the notable advantage he has over his rivals.
According to the most recent Democratic primary poll, released by Emerson College in early January, Biden leads voting intentions with a solid 69 percent, significantly surpassing his two main contenders: Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips (5 percent). percent), and self-help book author Marianne Williamson (3 percent).
This study also reveals that 22 percent of voters are undecided, without having made a decision about their preference or even whether they will participate in the vote.
First Democratic appointment At Biden's initiative, the Democratic Party changed the primary calendar last year, snatching from Iowa and New Hampshire the first positions they had occupied since 1972, and granting that honor to South Carolina.
That modification had two objectives: to reaffirm Biden's loyalty to the state that revived his candidacy in 2020, after placing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire during the Democratic primaries; and regain the support of African-American voters, which will be crucial in an eventual battle with Donald Trump, favorite to be the Republican candidate.
However, despite being the initial state, South Carolina's influence is relative. In the primaries, only 55 delegates will be allocated of the almost 2,000 needed for Biden to officially declare himself the Democratic candidate.
Additionally, South Carolina is not in play in the November election, as it is considered a conservative state that has not voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1976 with Carter.
EFE
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