The credit rating agency Morningstar DRBS has warned that DANA could cause an increase in delinquencies among banks, according to a report published this Tuesday.
The firm has indicated that Spanish banks have an e“moderate” exposure to the affected regions and that the Government has already announced several measures that affect companies and homes.
“As a result of this we expect that any impact on banks’ profitability and asset quality will be manageablesupported by its improved profit generation and solid capitalization,” DBRS analysts have indicated.
In this sense, they expect a “certain increase” in loans that show the first signs of problems (‘stage 2’), as well as in bad loans (‘stage 3’). These impacts will be seen especially in the fourth quarter of the year and in the first half of 2025.
According to data from the Bank of Spain, the exposure of Spanish banks to the regions affected by DANA is 20,000 million eurosof which 65% are loans to households, while another 21% is to SMEs and the remaining 14% is to other companies.
With this data, with the exposure reports by autonomous communities and with data from 68 postal codes from the Valencia Chamber of Commerce, DBRS has estimated the possible impacts by entity.
In absolute terms, the most affected bank is CaixaBankwith more than 5,000 million, ahead of BBVAwith just under 3,000 million, and Sabadellwith more than 2,000 million.
However, taking into account the balance sheet of each entity, the most affected bank is Cajamarwhose exposure to the affected areas covers 3.5% of its total risk exposure. It is followed by Sabadell (1.9%), Bankinter (1.5%) and BBVA (1.3%).
In any case, DBRS has warned that the consequences for the general economy and for banks “they are yet to be seen”. For the firm, the biggest risk for the bank is its exposure to small businesses. According to estimates from the Valencia Chamber of Commerce, between 25% and 40% of small businesses They are not going to reopen.
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