The worst DANA that has devastated Spain in the last 60 years has left a trail of death and destruction with hundreds of victims and towns devastated in the east of the peninsula. And the warnings from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) still do not stop, with yellow and orange alerts on the northern coast of the Mediterranean and in areas of Andalusia near Jaén. With our eyes on the sky, the question is logical as to how much longer the phenomenon will last and whether it could be repeated with the same force in the same or other points on the peninsula.
Aemet responds: DANA will not abandon us until at least Sunday. “During the afternoon of this Saturday and for a good part of Sunday the phenomenon will still generate showers and storms in the Mediterranean, from Catalonia to the Region of Murcia, passing through the Valencian Community,” Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the agency, tells ABC. , who warns that “these showers will be especially intense”, with special emphasis on the southern area of Catalonia and the north of the province of Castellón, where the orange alerts are, in fact, located. «In these the rains can be abundant and could exceed 100 or 120 liters per square meter in 12 hours. Furthermore, there could be overflows of channels and Ramblas. So be careful there.”
But even if the clouds give a truce on Monday, the calm situation will not last long in the eastern Mediterranean, since another DANA is expected next week. “Starting on Thursday, the middle of next week, it is likely that another DANA could affect the Mediterranean,” says Del Campo. “But be careful, this has nuances: it does not mean that torrential rains like the ones we have experienced in the last week will occur again,” says the expert. For now, the predictions indicate that showers are expected in the area and that “some storms may be intense, so we must pay attention to the weather forecast again.” However, Del Campo sends a reassuring message: “In principle and for now, a scenario like the one we have experienced is not contemplated.”
The difficult task of preventing DANA
Del Campo explains that the precision of prediction models in the case of phenomena such as DANA is reduced to one week in advance. «You can know, although not how much rain it will leave, far from it. This is seen as the deadline approaches,” explains the expert. Because DANA are a phenomenon that is difficult to predict due to their particular nature: “To sum it up, they have an erratic movement, so weather prediction models are not able to accurately predict where they are going to go until a short time before.” ».
That is, about four or five days before, a large area has been delimited in which intense rains will most likely occur. But it is not until very shortly before that it is known in which precise places the rains will intensify the most. «It is practically impossible to predict in which specific area it will occur. “At most one or two days at best.”
The value of alerts
When asked if Aemet plans to review its warning protocols, Del Río states: “What has become clear is that there has been a situation in which our red level weather warnings have not affected the population to become into true alerts for society as far in advance as possible.” The expert points out that these types of messages about the weather “have to translate into the population being aware that the coming situation is exceptional, that the risk due to the meteorological phenomenon is extreme and that for a few hours or while the red warning lasts “Life cannot continue as if nothing happened.”
The Aemet spokesperson emphasizes that in the event of a red alert it is necessary to “think about taking refuge, in a safe place” and in no case “travel or expose oneself to danger unless strictly necessary.”
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