The attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on commercial and military ships in the Red Sea already have economic consequences, limited at the moment. But Its severity, and the impact on people's pockets, will depend on how long this crisis lasts.according to specialists.
(We explain: 8 questions to understand the crisis in the Red Sea: how serious is what is happening?)
It should be remembered that, since mid-November, after the start of the war between Hamas and Israel on October 7, Houthi militias, a Yemeni insurgent group backed by Iran, have launched dozens of attacks in the Red Sea against commercial vessels they say are linked to Israeli interests..
The insurgents, who support Hamas, explain that it is a way to put pressure on Israel and show solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, where the Israeli army has launched a broad military offensive.
What economic repercussions can these attacks bring? These are the key points of the situation, which has the Middle East and global trade on maximum alert.
(We explain: 8 questions to understand the crisis in the Red Sea: how serious is what is happening?)
How does it affect maritime circulation?
Attacks on merchant ships have multiplied in recent weeks. About 12% of global maritime trade passes in normal times through the Bab al Mandeb Strait, which controls access to the southern Red Sea. However, since mid-November, the number of containers has fallen by 70%, according to industry experts..
Many shipowners have preferred to interrupt their activity in this area and opt for an alternative itinerary that passes through the South African Cape of Good Hope, much longer and therefore more expensive.
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In addition, another region is being affected, in this case by a climatic factor. The drought that hits the Panama Canal has considerably slowed down ship traffic between Asia and the United States.
If in normal times about forty ships pass through the Canal every day, the number has been reduced to 24 these days.
The French shipping giant CMA CGM announced that it was suspending container ship crossings through the Red Sea following attacks on ships by the Houthis.
It should also be remembered that this is a key area for global maritime trade: nearly 15 percent of global maritime trade operates through this route, including 8 percent of cereals, 12 percent of oil and 8 percent of of world trade in liquefied natural gas.
The crisis is being evident in prices, and the cost of a barrel of crude oil increased by around 4 percent last Friday, when the United States and the United Kingdom launched attacks in defense of global economic interests.
The attacks have world powers on alert, especially the United States, Israel's main ally. More than 50 nations have been directly affected by traffic disruptions in the Red Sea.
Delays and cessation of activities
Several companies have already warned of delays in their deliveries, including the Swedish furniture giant Ikea. “The situation in the Suez Canal is going to cause delays,” the company said in an email sent to AFP.
automobile manufacturing she is looking equally disturbed.
Tesla noted that its production will be suspended for two weeks at its European factory, between January 29 and February 11.
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At the same time, The Volvo factory in Ghent, Belgium, plans to close three days this month, due to a lack of gearboxes, whose delivery was delayed by “readjustments in the sea lanes”.
“Capital goods or electronics companies could encounter delays. And for those that work at a frenetic pace and with little stock, the situation could be problematic,” confirms Ano Kuhanathan, economist at Allianz Trade, to AFP.
Capital goods or electronics companies could encounter delays. And for those who work at a frenetic pace and with little stock, the situation could be problematic.
In Spain, the Association of Manufacturers and Distributors (AECOC) announced that Several sectors advanced their orders for certain raw materials and merchandise, such as furniture and textile products, with which they are already observing delivery problems. The objective, the alliance pointed out, is “to avoid breaks in the supply chain.”
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Even the transportation of liquefied natural gas will be “affected” by the escalation in the Red Sea, the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed ben Abdulrahman Al Thani, warned this Tuesday from the Davos Forum, one of the world's main producers.
Is renewed inflation looming?
Shipping companies are significantly increasing their rates to cover expenses due to the current crisis.
One of the benchmark indicators to measure the cost of freight for goods shipped from China, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), doubled in one month.
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The extra cost of fuel is estimated at 20%according to Container xChange.
This logistics platform estimates that the crisis in the Red Sea could increase maritime transport costs by 60%, with a premium of around 20% for shipowners' insurance.
Protest in the streets of the Yemeni city of Hodeida to condemn the attacks by US and British forces.
All this fuels fears of renewed inflation.
The analysis center Oxford Economics estimates that all this could add up seven tenths to world inflation at the end of this year, in the hypothesis that “the Red Sea is closed to ships for several months and transport costs remain around double December prices”.
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Everything will therefore depend on the duration of the crisis.
“Bypassing Africa and not passing through the Suez Canal anymore is more expensive and longer. But at the moment it is more of a security problem than a logistics one,” said Siegfried Russwurm, president of the BDI, the organization of German industrialists, on Tuesday.
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
*With information from AFP
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