The need for medical care is expected to double in February. THL estimates that 80 percent of Finns aged 10–69 get either asymptomatic or symptomatic during the omni-wave.
Coronary infections The number in Finland may even multiply by the beginning of February, according to the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL). The need for total hospital care can also double with a small delay from this.
“It is possible that the peak of the epidemic will vary slightly between different groups,” says a THL specialist Simopekka Vänskä.
THL experts presented the potential burden of medical care to the coroner’s ministerial group on Friday. The calculations are still very preliminary.
In order to estimate the hospital burden, THL’s calculations assume that during a 12-week wave, the coronavirus omicron transformation will go through a large part of the Finnish population. The wave has therefore started roughly in mid-December.
During the wave, 80 per cent of Finns aged 10–69 get either asymptomatic or symptomatic. For those under 10 and 70, 60 percent become infected.
Patients would need an average of 400 to 700 patients each week for specialist care. At its peak, there would be between 900 and 1,300 weeks of specialist care.
For primary health care, THL has not yet presented more detailed figures.
According to data from Friday, according to the data, there are 672 patients with coronary heart disease in Finland, 61 of whom are in intensive care.
Corona Ministerial Group met on Friday to negotiate including the closure of restaurants.
Calculations the premise is that omicron transformation does not cause disease requiring specialist care as often as delta transformation. Vänskä says that according to information from Norway, it seems that omicro would cause about 70 percent less serious disease than delta.
Another premise is that vaccinations reduce the need for specialist care. Information has already been gathered from abroad and preliminary information is already available from Finland.
HS reported on Thursday that a significant proportion of intensive care periods have been shorter in January.
Read more: Last week, there were the most coronary patients in intensive care since April 2020 – however, some are in treatment for reasons other than corona
Vänskä emphasizes the incompleteness of the calculations. THL has not yet developed a new epidemic scenario. This is due, among other things, to the fact that there is no even more detailed information about the duration of special medical care periods caused by the micron transformation in Finland. Thus, the total load cannot yet be calculated.
In addition, the actual number of people living with corona infections today is also an estimate.
THL’s preliminary estimate is in line with, among other things, recent Norwegian scenarios.
According to recent scenarios in Norway and Denmark, the number of infections and the hospital burden will continue to increase. In Denmark, for example, infections are forecast to peak at the end of January. At that time, there would be 25,000 to 55,000 infections a day.
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