ZFor the first time this year, the inflation rate in Germany has fallen from one month to the next: in June inflation was 7.6 percent, after 7.9 percent in May. The Federal Statistical Office confirmed a corresponding initial estimate on Wednesday and published more detailed figures for individual products. These show that the introduction of the 9-euro ticket in local rail transport has apparently made a noticeable contribution to the decline in the inflation rate. “The 9-euro ticket caused the inflation rate in June to be 0.8 percentage points lower than usual,” says Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank. “This was mainly due to the cheaper combined train and bus tickets.” On the other hand, the fall in price for train tickets in local transport alone was less important because the proportion of the shopping basket was comparatively low.
However, the effect of the reduced energy tax on fuel (“tank discount”) cannot be precisely calculated from the consumer price statistics alone, since it is unclear to what extent the mineral oil companies would have passed the tax reduction on to consumers and to what extent simply lower crude oil prices for the consumer slight drop in petrol prices were responsible. There are different studies on this, some with conflicting results.
Lower prices in transport
In any case, it is striking that according to inflation statistics, prices in local rail transport fell by an average of 45.1 percent in June compared to the previous month, and by 43.9 percent compared to the same month last year. In combined bus and train transport, prices fell by 63.3 percent compared to the previous month and by 62.6 percent compared to the same month last year.
At the petrol station, the percentage drop in prices was not nearly as great. Although the price of premium petrol fell by 5 percent in June compared to the previous month, this meant a price increase of 27.7 percent compared to the same month last year. Diesel fuel fell by 0.9 percent compared to the previous month, but compared to the same month last year this was still a price increase of 47.4 percent.
Energy drives inflation
“The main causes of the high inflation are still price increases for energy products – the 9-euro ticket and the tank discount, on the other hand, had a slightly dampening effect,” said Georg Thiel, President of the Federal Statistical Office. If the prices for fuel and local public transport had remained unchanged in June compared to May without the relief, the inflation rate would have risen from 7.9 to 8.6 percent, according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office.
Accordingly, many economists expect that inflation in Germany will remain somewhat reduced in July and August with the tank discount and 9-euro ticket and then rise again. For September, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at the Hamburg bank Berenberg, expects prices to jump to a record inflation rate of more than 9 percent. In his estimation, this could mean that inflation has peaked for the time being.
Meat keeps getting more expensive
Food prices continue to rise sharply. On average, they increased by 12.7 percent in June over the year, which was even more than in May with 11.1 percent and in April with 8.6 percent. “Price increases were observed for all food groups in June,” reports the Federal Statistical Office. Edible fats and oils became significantly more expensive with an increase of 43.1 percent. Meat and meat products rose by 18.9 percent, dairy products and eggs by 15.3 percent, and bread and cereal products by 12.5 percent. Meat prices rose again compared to May, while vegetables became a little cheaper.
Restaurateurs are currently reporting that their purchase prices have risen so much that they can hardly maintain the prices on their menus and actually have to keep increasing them. According to the Federal Statistical Office, producer prices for agricultural products rose by 36 percent in May compared to the same month last year. The prices for animal products were 35.2 percent above the previous year’s values, the price for milk was 41.8 percent and the price for grain was 71.5 percent on average.
Fuel prices fall below 2 euros
A certain relief for motorists was recently observed in the case of petrol prices. With the lowering of the energy tax on June 1, the prices for Super E10 and diesel at the filling stations initially fell significantly, but then rose again in the next few days. Since mid-June, however, there has been a clear downward movement roughly parallel to the price of crude oil. In June, crude oil prices for North Sea Brent were still more than $120 per barrel (159 liter barrel), but the price is now less than $100.
In its weekly evaluation of the prices of 14,000 filling stations, the ADAC car club describes the development of fuel prices over the past week as follows: Super E10 has become cheaper by an average of 1.7 cents to 1.826 euros per liter, the price of diesel has fallen by 2 .6 cents to 1.963 euros per liter. This means that there are only a few cities where fuel costs more than 2 euros per liter on a daily average. Nevertheless, the ADAC continued to describe the current fuel prices as “greatly inflated”. The decline compared to the previous week is primarily due to lower crude oil prices. “The price of oil is the lowest it has been in more than four months,” writes the auto club. However, the effect of the cheaper crude oil is somewhat dampened by the weakness of the euro compared to the dollar.
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