Congress closes ranks with Biden on the Ukrainian crisis

US President Joe Biden. / SAUL LOEB / AFP

The last hurdle to overcome is the Russian gas pipeline in Germany, which the Republicans want to sacrifice preventively

This week, as President Joe Biden’s approval ratings hit a new record low (39%, according to Rasmussen Reports), the president received a rare compliment from opposition leader Mitch McConnell for his handling of the Ukraine crisis. “I think he’s moving in the right direction,” he celebrated. “He is prepared to take steps before the raid, not after the raid.”

Less than two months ago, the president faced criticism not only from the Republicans, but also from his own party, which is also experiencing an unusual current of bipartisanship on the Ukrainian issue. The delegation of legislators that visited Kiev in early December was once again determined to pressure the president to take Ukraine’s security in the form of weapons seriously.

The Republicans would have wanted it to be in the form of gas as well. Specifically, vetoing the construction of the gas pipeline that will bypass Ukraine to directly connect Russian energy with Germany. For them, Nord Stream 2 is Ukraine’s last line of defense against Russian invasion, but the White House insists on dancing with Germany to maintain allies’ unity. The compromise solution reached is to reserve that bullet for when Moscow crosses the red line, which in this case indelibly coincides with the Ukrainian border. Germany would have agreed to give up that important source of energy supply if Russia takes the dreaded step, given that the gas pipeline is still pending regulatory approval in Brussels. Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz will discuss the details with Biden this Monday during his visit to the White House, with which Biden hopes to begin cultivating the personal ties he misses so much from his predecessor Angela Merkel. “Obviously Scholz is not Merkel,” a senior US executive said privately.

preventive sanctions

The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is the last remaining obstacle to closing the preventive sanctions negotiations being prepared by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where, according to Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, there is agreement on 95% of the package. That remaining 5% depends on turning off the tap before or after the Russian incursion. McConnell is in favor of showing Putin his teeth with preventive measures before it is too late. Somewhat less battle-hardened Democrats, like Senator Mark Warner, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, believe that could give Putin the excuse he seeks to justify the invasion based on his own national security interests. Like him, many believe that blocking the gas pipeline should be a deterrent, because if the United States unloads all the bullets before starting the war, it will be left without weapons to continue fighting. No one is talking about sending US soldiers to Ukrainian soil. In the United States there is no appetite for war, after having dishonorably closed the one in Afghanistan, 20 years and 2.3 billion dollars later. Not even one in six Americans wants to send US troops to Ukraine in the event of a Russian invasion (15.3%, according to a Trafalgar Group poll).

Public opinion only agrees to honor its commitment to NATO to defend the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance countries, but even then many remember Trump’s words about who bears the economic and military burden of paying for NATO. Not even 40% of the thirty member countries meet the requirement of contributing 2% of their GDP. That includes half of those who make up the Bucharest League, created in 2015 in Romania. They are precisely those who make up the Eastern flank of NATO and most need your support to contain Russian ambition.

“If the Europeans are unwilling to spend their own blood and loot on self-defense, why should the Americans be expected to?” a reporter asked White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki on Monday. The argument sounded like Afghanistan, where the Afghan army’s unwillingness to fight the Taliban justified a hasty withdrawal. The Biden government is not willing to repeat the images of another Saigon-style evacuation, which is why two weeks ago it recommended that all its citizens leave Ukraine and evacuated the families of its diplomats, no matter how much the Kiev government crosses it out of hysteria. “We have verbalized very clearly that this is the time to leave,” the White House insisted. “There are no intentions or plans for a military evacuation.”

If there is no appetite for war, and no need to defend a NATO ally, why have Democrats and Republicans closed ranks on the Ukraine crisis? Since Crime’s invasion in 2014, the US has provided $2.7 billion to the Kiev government in security “assistance”, mostly in loans to buy weapons and military equipment from US manufacturers. The latest shipment worth $200 million in “lethal aid” arrived last week on seven cargo planes, carrying 585 tons of rifles, ammunition, rocket launchers and Javelin anti-tank missiles, following a visit by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. “This is not the last, they will keep coming!” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov wrote on Twitter. The next day he demonstrated to the international press by launching American missiles to show his teeth to Russia.

Arms and military equipment makers have spent $2.5 billion over the past two decades lobbying Congress and have donated $285 million directly to lawmakers’ campaigns, according to Open Secrets. Some of the most benefited are precisely Democratic senators Bob Menendez and Jack Reed, who these days are negotiating sanctions and arms sales to Ukraine, as chairmen of the Committee on Foreign Relations (where Biden served for two decades) and of the Senate Armed Services. , respectively.

The president spins fine to satisfy the arms craving of one and the other, but he needs to win the diplomatic bet so as not to disappoint his countrymen in another foreign policy move. The experience that was his strength during the campaign could become his Achilles’ heel and drag his party into the November elections, where whoever wins, the house always wins.